The Los Angeles Chargers look to get right at home on Thursday Night Football with the Minnesota Vikings in town.
The pregame narrative: Minnesota couldn’t convert a bye week’s worth of preparation into a win on Sunday, and now it’ll hit the road to face an L.A. squad that is 0-4-1 ATS since Week 3. The Chargers are still above-.500 straight up, and they’re in line to get a huge boost to their offensive line.
Check out my Vikings vs. Chargers picks for Oct. 23, featuring a prop bet on Justin Herbert and an ATS pick.
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Vikings vs. Chargers picks
Best Bet: Herbert over 16.5 rush yards (-118)
The Chargers are trying to figure out their running game right now. I expect Herbert to factor into those plans.
- With Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris out, the Chargers are now on their third and fourth-string tailbacks (Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins).
- In Week 7, Vidal and Haskins combined for 23 rushing yards on 10 carries.
- Herbert was the leading rusher for L.A. last week, compiling 31 yards on six carries.
The Vikings are tied for allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs (10.5), but they’ve also faced the third-fewest QB rush attempts (2.8/game).
Herbert isn’t a textbook running quarterback, so his rushing volume tends to be a bit sporadic.
Under the circumstances of the Chargers’ RB personnel, though, I think the team should be letting him use his legs more often than usual.
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Herbert is 5-2 vs. this rushing yards prop in 2025, which is on track to be the best rushing season of his six-year career.
Key stat: Herbert is currently posting career-high rushing marks in yards per game (26.6), attempts per game (4.3) and success rate (60.0%).
Thursday Night Football ATS pick
Chargers -3 (-120): The Chargers got embarrassed at home last week against the Colts, extending their ATS winless streak to five games. I think there’s hope on the horizon, though.
L.A. is hopeful to get star offensive tackle Joe Alt (ankle) back after a three-game injury absence. Alt was a limited practice participant on Wednesday and Thursday last week and logged a limited practice estimate to open Week 8.
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The Vikings’ pass defence has great numbers, ranking No. 3 in the NFL in success rate and EPA per play. But I think those numbers are fluky, given that they played Jake Browning and Dillon Gabriel along the way.
Jalen Hurts threw for 326 yards in Minnesota last week. That was his highest yardage total since Week 13 of the 2022 season.
Even if the Chargers’ run game is limited, I think Herbert — the NFL’s leading passer — can do enough through the air to help L.A. get back on track.
Both of Minnesota’s potential starting QB options, J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz, were limited in practice to open the week.
Vikings vs. Chargers picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET 10/21/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.