The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder host the Houston Rockets on Tuesday night in the NBA’s season opener.
The pregame narrative: OKC and Houston play in the first game of an opening night doubleheader, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Durant headlining the action. The Thunder were the best home team in the NBA last year and are favoured to tip off the new season with a win.
Check out my +360 Rockets vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for the NBA’s season opener, in Oklahoma City on Oct. 21.
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Rockets vs. Thunder SGP predictions
SGP: Holmgren 2+ threes | Sheppard 2+ threes | Thunder ML (+360)
Chet Holmgren 2+ threes (+110): Isaiah Joe and Jalen Williams ranked first and fourth, respectively, in 3-point attempts per game for the Thunder last year. Both are out tonight.
Their 11.2 attempts/game may not directly translate for the remaining players, but the absences do create more opportunities than usual for other guys. To me, that adds intrigue to Holmgren’s line.
- Holmgren shot a respectable 37.9% from deep last year on 3.6 attempts.
- He shot 10-for-17 (58.8%) beyond the arc in three games vs. the Rockets last year, going 2-1 vs. this number.
Dating back to the 2023-24 season, Holmgren has played 16 games without J-Dub, and the 3-point numbers have been great in terms of volume and efficiency.
In those 16 games, Holmgren shot 44.4% from 3-point range on 5.1 attempts. He went 11-5 vs. this milestone.
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NBA opening night SGP picks
Reed Sheppard 2+ threes (-155): Like Holmgren, Sheppard is a high lottery pick who’s been brought along slowly.
But with Fred VanVleet out for the year, Sheppard should see a huge lift in usage as a sophomore.
Ideally, Sheppard takes over as the starting point guard for Houston. Tonight, though, he’ll come off the bench.
I don’t see that as a bad thing, given that it should mean more time for Sheppard to be a second-unit alpha rather than deferring to the team’s primary scorers (Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun).
Sheppard shot 10-for-23 (43.5%) from deep in his final three preseason games and cashed this bet each time. That includes one game coming off the bench.
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Thunder moneyline (-275): Between Durant’s debut for the Rockets and Amen Thompson’s expected ascent, there’s a lot to be excited about in Houston.
I don’t expect the season to get off to a winning start, though, because the Oklahoma City Thunder are still the toast of the league.
OKC is favoured to win it all after capturing the NBA championship last summer.
The Thunder had an NBA-high .820 win percentage at home in 2024-25. They won all three home games vs. the Rockets by a combined 43 points.
Rockets vs. Thunder predictions made at 12:05 p.m. on 10/21/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.