The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions meet for the third time in as many seasons when they battle on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Detroit bounced Tampa Bay from the playoffs in 2024, and the Buccaneers responded in kind with a win at Ford Field last year. This rubber match will be decided in Detroit, and the Lions are favoured to win against a shorthanded Buccaneers offence.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions, featuring Baker Mayfield and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Buccaneers vs. Lions SGP predictions
SGP: Buccaneers +10.5 | Mayfield 20+ rushing yards | St. Brown 80+ receiving yards (+370)
Buccaneers +10.5 (-235): How can you not love the Buccaneers at this number?
Tampa Bay is 4-1, and its only loss was a six-point defeat to the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles. The defence is strong, and the offence, led by MVP candidate Mayfield, has been elite.
- Mayfield ranks inside the top five in passing yards (1,539) and passing touchdowns (12).
- Tampa Bay is averaging the sixth-most PPG (27.5) and ranks seventh in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
That unit is banged up, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Mike Evans is likely to play and Emeka Egbuka “has a real chance to play.”
Mayfield has performed with backups all season, and I think he can keep things close against Detroit’s elite offence even without all of his best weapons.
Detroit has failed to cover a -10.5 spread against all three opponents who made the playoffs last year (Packers, Ravens, Chiefs).
Monday Night Football SGP picks
Mayfield 20+ rushing yards (-135): Mayfield is atop many tangible leaderboards, but I’d also venture to say he’s leading the league in “having that dog in ’em.”
The journeyman quarterback has thrown his body around in do-or-die situations, rushing for 26.3 yards per game.
He’s gone 3-3 against this line, and rushed for 34 yards in last year’s Week 2 victory over the Lions.
Detroit ranks top 12 in blitz rate (24.8%) and pressure rate (22.1%), so I anticipate Mayfield will have to use his legs if things get dicey.
St. Brown 80+ receiving yards (+114): St. Brown is capable of going for 100 yards on any given Sunday (or Monday).
- The all-pro wide receiver is 2-4 against this line, logging 100+ yards twice with two 70+ yard performances mixed in.
- His 8.5 targets per game are tied for 10th in the NFL. Last year, St. Brown had the eighth-most targets (141) in the league.
The Buccaneers’ defence is mostly equipped to stop the run game, and I expect St. Brown will have his number called often.
He blew by this total last year, catching 11 of 18 targets for 119 yards.
And in the playoffs the year before, he caught 8 of 14 targets for 77 yards. That type of volume is staggering, and gives me confidence he’s in for a huge game.
Buccaneers vs. Lions predictions made at 11:15 a.m. on 10/19/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.