Needing a win to extend their season, the Toronto Blue Jays return to Rogers Centre for ALCS Game 6.
The pregame narrative: A five-run eighth inning lifted the Seattle Mariners to victory last time out. For Sunday’s Game 6 matchup, the Jays look to reignite their lethal offence as slight home favourites.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bet for ALCS Game 6 on Oct. 19 in Toronto.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bet
Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-110)
Playoff baseball tends to have fewer runs, but that hasn’t really run true in this series.
- After a 3-1 final in ALCS Game 1, in which Toronto hit a leadoff homer and proceeded to bat 1-for-28, the scoring floodgates have opened. Games 2-5 have all gone over 7.5 runs.
- For the series, the average total is 10.4 runs.
- Overs are 9-1 in the past 10 matchups between these teams (dating back to April).
Trey Yesavage will start for Toronto, with Logan Gilbert likely taking the mound for the Mariners (though that wasn’t confirmed at the time of this writing).
In Game 2 at Rogers Centre, Yesavage was tagged for five runs on four hits and three walks over 4.0 innings.
Gilbert allowed three runs on five hits and a walk over 3.0 innings.
Keep that in mind: Last time out, these pitchers allowed enough runs in half a game to cash this over.
At this point in the series, both teams have seen plenty of the opposing bullpens. A combined 13 relievers have pitched at least twice in the ALCS.
All of that familiarity should favour the hitters.
Another note working in favour of the over is that George Springer, who exited Game 5 with a knee contusion, is expected to return to the lineup on Sunday.
Springer is one of seven Blue Jays with a wRC+ north of 120 in the postseason.
Between Toronto’s ultra-deep lineup and Seattle’s top-tier power bats (Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez), it’s easy to see why this ALCS has featured so much offence.
Key stat: Toronto has MLB’s highest rate of overs this year (94-71-6, 57.0%), per Team Rankings. Seattle (94-73-5, 56.3%) ranks second.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bet made at 2:50 p.m. on 10/18/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.