Coming off a bye and looking for a third consecutive win, the Houston Texans hit the road to face the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Seattle has been the more consistent team and should be getting some key pieces back on defence this week. Unsurprisingly, the Seahawks are favoured against C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
Check out my Texans vs. Seahawks picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Oct. 20, featuring a prop prediction on Zach Charbonnet.
Texans vs. Seahawks picks
Best Bet: Charbonnet anytime TD (+135)
Charbonnet has been brutally inefficient for the Seahawks, but he’s still getting more than his fair share of opportunities. Especially near the goal line.
Among 44 qualified runners, Charbonnet ranks 42nd in yards/attempt before contact … and 41st in yards/attempt after contact.
I don’t care if he racks up a bunch of yards, though. What matters is how often the Seahawks trust him to carry the ball in scoring situations.
- Charbonnet has 1+ carries inside the 10-yard line in all five games, totalling 11 carries from that distance so far this season.
- In contrast, teammate Kenneth Walker has only had five total touches inside the 10-yard line, and he hasn’t scored since Week 3.
Last week, Charbonnet had more total carries (12) and a greater snap share (60%) than Walker (10 carries, 35% of snaps).
It still seems like Walker has more juice in the open field, but Charbonnet is the more trusted back in close.
Houston’s run defence has been so-so, ranking 16th in success rate and EPA per play. When Seattle gets near the end zone, Charbonnet should have ample chances to cash.
Key stat: Charbonnet has five carries inside the five-yard line over the past three weeks, and he scored in two of those games.
Monday Night Football ATS pick
Seahawks -3 (-112): Houston has the rest advantage coming out of a bye, and the Texans won their past two games by a combined score of 70-10.
But just because the Texans can punch down on the Titans and the shorthanded Ravens, it doesn’t mean I think this team has suddenly turned a corner.
Prior to facing those two bottom-of-the-barrel defences, Houston went 0-3 ATS while scoring just 38 total points against three playoff-calibre teams: the Rams, Buccaneers and Jaguars.
Seattle (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) looks like a playoff-calibre team, too. Coming off an eight-point road win over the Jaguars, I like the Seahawks to cover this modest spread at home.
The Seahawks’ secondary has been really banged up, but the trio of Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen and Julian Love has been practicing this week. If any or all of them return, I’ll like this play even more.
Texans vs. Seahawks picks made at 12:11 p.m. ET 10/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.