A pair of NFC East running backs headline this week’s TD picks.
The pregame narrative: It’s been a rough two weeks for the Philadelphia Eagles, but I can’t look past Saquon Barkley’s price to score against the Minnesota Vikings. Elsewhere, expect Cam Skattebo to stay hot against a Denver Broncos team at a severe rest disadvantage.
Check out my top Week 7 NFL TD picks, featuring a pick on Los Angeles Chargers RB Keenan Allen.
NFL TD picks: Week 7
Best bet: Skattebo to score (+110)
Skattebo and Jaxson Dart have done the impossible, bringing exciting football to the Meadowlands.
The rookie duo has authored a pair of upset wins since Dart took over, with Skattebo putting together the best performance of his young career against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football in Week 6:
- 19 carries
- 98 yards
- 3 touchdowns
Do I think he’ll replicate that against Denver? Probably not.
The Broncos’ defence has held opponents to the second-fewest points (15.8) and yards (254.2) per game, so this is far from an easy matchup.
But Denver is flying back from London to play at altitude, while New York has had an extended rest following its TNF victory.
Some fatigue should set in for the defence. We just saw the Cleveland Browns get torn up by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a similar situation.
If and when New York gets into scoring territory, Skattebo will be the man who gets the ball.
Key stat: Skattebo has received all but two of the Giants’ 24 red zone carries for RBs this season.
Best NFL touchdown bets
Barkley to score (-152): Nothing has gone right lately for the Eagles, who have dropped consecutive games to the Giants and Broncos.
Barkley was particularly invisible in those games, rushing the ball a combined 18 times for 88 yards. That 4.9 YPC mark is solid, so it’s fair to wonder why he isn’t getting more touches.
Is first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo trying to placate A.J. Brown with a pass-heavy attack? Possibly.
Regardless, the Eagles should go back to what works this week, and that’s running the football down the opposition’s throat.
Barkley doesn’t have a favourable matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. But I don’t think that will matter.
The dynamic RB had at least 18 carries in every game before Week 5, and I expect him to get back to that workload on Sunday.
Barkley has still cashed this wager in four of six games after scoring 20 total TDs across the regular season and playoffs last year.
Allen to score (+137): I backed Justin Herbert to throw a pair of touchdowns this week against the Indianapolis Colts, so I may as well piggyback on that with a pick on Allen.
Indy has beaten up on some bad teams, but it let competent QBs like Matthew Stafford and Bo Nix throw for three TDs apiece. Even journeyman Jacoby Brissett went for 320 yards and two TDs last week.
Allen has the third-most red zone targets (10) in the NFL. He’s turned that into three scores and has now connected with Herbert 28 times in the end zone.
The veteran wideout has had at least seven targets every game, so I expect him to remain involved in L.A.’s offence.
NFL TD picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 10/17/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.