This weekend marks the third Saturday in October, and that means it’s time for the Alabama Crimson Tide to face the Tennessee Volunteers.
The pregame narrative: No. 6 Alabama hosts No. 11 Tennessee in a major rivalry game that is certain to shake up the national rankings. The Tide have rebounded exceptionally well after a stunning loss to Florida State in their opener, winning five in a row. Bama hasn’t lost to Tennessee at home since 2003.
Check out my Tennessee vs. Alabama same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 18, featuring prop bets on Isaiah Horton and Joey Aguilar.
Tennessee vs. Alabama predictions
Parlay: Horton anytime TD | Aguilar over 234.5 pass yards | Over 54.5 points (+450)
Horton anytime TD (+135): Alabama doesn’t have a go-to receiver this year, per se. But Horton is on a short list of players who’s been involved consistently.
- There are five Crimson Tide pass-catchers with at least 15 receptions. But no one has more than 28 (Horton is tied for second with 21).
- So far, 10 players have caught a touchdown. But only three players have more than two (Horton has four).
Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson leads the SEC in TD passes with 16. He has at least two in every game, which shows that Alabama is committed to getting into the end zone through the air.
At this price, I’m interested in backing Horton as a straight wager and in a parlay. He’s scored in four of his past five games, and three of those TDs came on red zone targets.
I expect a lot of points in this matchup, and I love Horton’s chances of being part of that.
Crimson Tide vs. Bulldogs SGP picks
Aguilar over 234.5 passing yards (-118): This prop seems awfully low for Aguilar, doesn’t it? After all, he leads the SEC in passing with 1,680 yards through six games.
The challenge that Alabama’s defence has yet to allow a 200-yard passer. So Aguilar would have to break new ground in that regard. But I think he can do it.
The Appalachian State transfer, who led the Sun Belt in passing yards per game last season (273.0), has already done plenty to prove he belongs in the big, bad SEC.
Not only has he upped his yardage average (280.0/game), but he’s torched a couple of reputable opponents:
- 374 yards vs. No. 9 Georgia
- 335 yards at Mississippi State
Tennessee is nearly a 9-point underdog in this matchup. I expect Alabama to move the ball on what has been a highly suspect Volunteers defence, and that should mean Aguilar will need to air it out to keep up.
Over 54.5 points (-186): Great offence and questionable-at-best defence has led to Tennessee clearing this total in all six of its games … by at least 10 points.
The Vols have the No. 1 scoring offence in NCAA Division I (48.2 PPG) and the 109th-ranked scoring defence (29.3 PPG).
Alabama doesn’t play nearly so fast and loose. But its offence ranks No. 7 in EPA per play, according to Game On Paper, and its passing game ranks No. 7 in success rate.
So if a track meet is on the menu, Bama has the ingredients to make that work.
Over the previous five Tennessee/Alabama meetings, the average total was 67.4 points.
Tennessee vs. Alabama predictions made at 3:52 p.m. ET on 10/17/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.