The San Francisco 49ers are slowly getting healthier, and they’ll have George Kittle back in the fold for Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Playing at home for the first time this month, the 49ers (4-2) are favourites in prime time vs. the Atlanta Falcons. Kendrick Bourne has been a revelation for San Francisco and should continue to do his thing this weekend.
Check out my Falcons vs. 49ers picks for the Sunday Night Football matchup on Oct. 19.
Falcons vs. 49ers picks
Best bet: Bourne over 45.5 receiving yards (-114)
The last 49ers receiver to tally 100 receiving yards in three consecutive games was Jerry Rice in 1995.
Believe it or not, Bourne is on the cusp of becoming the next Niner to do that after a pair of massive games the past two weeks.
Given San Francisco’s injuries, along with Bourne’s recent production and his chemistry with quarterback Mac Jones, this yardage total is well below what I would’ve expected.
- Yes, George Kittle is back for the first time since injuring his hamstring back in Week 1. Head coach Kyle Shanahan didn’t admit to a specific snap count for Kittle, but he did say, “We’ll space it out throughout the game” in terms of the tight end’s usage.
- Ricky Pearsall remains out, as does QB1 Brock Purdy.
- The Purdy absence matters because Bourne seems to have ample chemistry with Jones. The former Patriots teammates have linked up for 354 yards on 29 targets in four games.
Bourne was the only San Francisco receiver with a snap share of 80% or above in Weeks 5 and 6.
He’ll definitely cede some opportunities to Kittle and Jauan Jennings — who returned last Sunday after some recent injury absences — but I don’t expect the drop-off to be as drastic as this yardage line implies.
The Falcons’ pass defence ranks in the top five in EPA per dropback and dropback success rate, per RBSDM.com, but that doesn’t deter me.
Bourne has proven to be a reliable outlet for Jones, and the two should continue to connect.
Key stat: Bourne has been the 49ers’ target leader in back-to-back weeks, with 20 total targets in that span.
Sunday Night Football O/U pick
Under 47 points (-113): It’s still very early in Michael Penix Jr.’s career, but the home/road split so far paints a vivid story.
- Home (six games): 95.2 passer rating, 6 TDs, 3 INTs, 8.4 yards/attempt, 64.5% completion rate.
- Road (four games): 61.7 passer rating, 1 TD, 3 INTs, 5.8 yards/attempt, 54.2% completion rate.
The last time Atlanta played on the road was a month ago, and the team lost 30-0 to the Carolina Panthers.
Unders are 4-1 in Falcons games this year, and all four of those unders came in below this total.
As for the 49ers, they’ve toed around this line for most of the season. This under is 2-2-2, and their average total for the year is 42.2 points.
Facing an unders-heavy Falcons squad at home should help this game land below the projected total.
Falcons vs. 49ers picks made at 9 a.m. ET 10/18/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.