Can the Toronto Blue Jays take all three ALCS road games in Seattle? They’ll have an opportunity to do so in Game 5 on Friday night.
The pregame narrative: The best-of-seven ALCS is now effectively a best-of-three after Toronto evened things up yesterday. Tonight’s matchup is a pick’em with Kevin Gausman and Bryce Miller on the mound.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 5, featuring prop bets on George Springer and Cal Raleigh.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions
Parlay: Springer over 1.5 bases | Raleigh over 0.5 hits | Over 7 runs (+250)
Springer over 1.5 total bases (+115): Springer started off the ALCS with a bang, homering on the first pitch he saw from Miller in Game 1.
After a renaissance regular season, Springer has kept his foot on the gas in October. He’s slugging .611 in eight games and is 5-0 vs. this prop in his past five.
Springer is 2-for-9 with a pair of homers off Miller, and there’s reason to believe he’s been shortchanged in this matchup. According to Baseball Savant, Springer has a .353 xBA and a 1.189 xSLG in those nine at-bats.
From the top of the Blue Jays’ lineup, Springer will have a shot at setting the tone again on Friday.
With his 98th-percentile xSLG (.592) and xBA (.303), this is a dangerous hitter that I want to continue buying in on.
MLB SGP legs
Raleigh over 0.5 hits (-175): Raleigh turned in a rare hitless effort on Thursday. But if the Mariners are going to right the ship, he’ll almost certainly be one of the guys leading the way.
- The AL MVP contender is still having a very strong postseason, with a .314/.429/.600 slash line in nine games. He’s 7-2 vs. this prop.
- During the regular season, Raleigh led the majors in homers (60). He also finished fourth in OPS (.948), behind only Springer, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.
The HR Derby champ has seen Gausman well, batting 8-for-17 (.471) with four homers.
In Game 1, Raleigh singled off Gausman in the first and belted a game-tying homer in the sixth to spark a Seattle win.
Behind Raleigh, the trio of Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor has been awfully effective. It doesn’t make sense to pitch around the switch-hitting catcher, and I like his chances of getting something good to hit.
Toronto vs. Seattle over/under prediction
Over 7 runs (-112): I thought T-Mobile Park was supposed to be pitcher-friendly.
According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Seattle’s home stadium has yielded 17% fewer runs than league average over the past three seasons. In most respects, it’s considered the least offence-friendly park in the majors.
But this over is 5-0 when the Jays and Mariners have met there this season. Their average total in those matchups is 11.0 runs.
Toronto and Seattle also have the two highest overs rates in MLB this season (56.7% and 56.0%), per Team Rankings.
In the first Gausman/Miller go-round, the final score was 3-1 in favour of the Mariners. But the Blue Jays had a .241 xBA that translated to just a 2-for-29 (.069) showing.
Both offences are plenty familiar with the opposing pitching staffs at this point, having played four times in the previous five days.
I’ll gladly back an over that the winning team has cleared by itself in three straight games.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 9:55 a.m. on 10/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.