Thursday’s postseason doubleheader features Game 4 of the ALCS between the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays.
The pregame narrative: Toronto’s bats erupted for 13 runs on 18 hits last night to make this a 2-1 series. I expect the bats to be a factor again tonight and am targeting two big Game 3 performers: George Springer and Daulton Varsho.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks for the Oct. 16 playoff game at T-Mobile Park, featuring a prop prediction on starter Luis Castillo.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks
Best bet: Castillo under 15.5 outs (-154)
I wanted the under on Castillo’s 4.5 K line but this is a better price, and the reasoning has overlap.
Game 3 starter George Kirby came in hot with monster strikeout numbers and got torched. I successfully faded him on 4.5 Ks, making starting pitchers 0-7 vs. that line against Toronto this postseason.
Castillo had a good September, but he missed bats at the worst rate of his career and was ordinary against the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS.
The Blue Jays were the hardest team in MLB to retire on strikes. That hasn’t changed in the playoffs.
Seattle pitchers have 16 Ks through three games (Jays pitchers have 35). But why all this talk about Ks when the pick is an outs prop?
Well, I expect the Jays to do what they do better than any team tonight — put the ball in play. If the contact remotely resembles last night, we’re looking at a really short outing here.
- Castillo’s hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant, was easily the highest of his career.
- Not surprisingly, so was his expected slugging mark. And he had a below-average K rate for the first time ever.
Even if Toronto cools, this has turned into a fairly big postseason line that I believe is worthy of an under play.
Toronto needs this more than Seattle, but I expect the Mariners to be aggressive in a game with huge swing potential.
The Mariners primarily used mop-up guys after Kirby last night, so their high-leverage arms are in a good spot after having Monday off.
Key stat: Cam Schlittler and Bryce Miller are the only starters to go more than 5.0 innings vs. Toronto this postseason.
MLB best bets
Springer over 1.5 total bases (+115): Springer is a playoff performer who has been mashing the ball during this run.
He was 3-for-6 with six total bases last night, including a solo bomb to straightaway center.
Six of his eight postseason hits have gone for extra bases, demonstrating his ability to cash this in one plate appearance.
But Springer can flat-out hit, so a multi-hit game is certainly a possibility for Toronto’s leadoff man.
Springer was arguably the best hitter in MLB in the second half:
- 1st in wRC+ (210)
- 2nd in SLG (.667)
- 2nd in BA (.369)
Varsho 1+ RBI (+225): This is a huge number for a power bat who smashes righties, which Seattle is heavy on.
Varsho has only driven in runs in two playoff games, but he has six total after cashing a pair of runners with a game-changing double last night.
- He’s batting .321 and slugging .679.
- The left-handed hitter slugged .591 off right-handers in the regular season, hitting 18 of his 20 homers off them.
Varsho has hit sixth in four straight games and I love his chances of stepping up with runners on base.
Toronto is No. 1 in average (.300) and second in on-base percentage (.350) this postseason.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 10/16/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.