The Toronto Maple Leafs can win back-to-back games for the first time this season, but need to get past the New York Rangers at home to do so.
The pregame narrative: The Rangers are 2-3-0, but both victories came on the road while being winless at home. Toronto’s offence came alive against the Nashville Predators, and I expect more of the same led by the first line of forwards.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks for Oct. 16, featuring predictions on Matthew Knies and Alexis Lafreniere.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Rangers
Best bet: Knies over 2.5 shots (+137)
This line doesn’t make much sense for Knies. Here’s why:
- He plays the second most time for any Leafs’ forward behind only Auston Matthews (20:34)
- In fact, Knies ranks 23rd amongst all NHL forwards for time on ice.
Playing top-end minutes naturally raises his production floor.
Last season, Knies averaged just under two shots per game but played two fewer minutes a night. His added workload provides an opportunity to get that number up, which we’ve seen so far this year.
This isn’t a great matchup by any means. The Rangers concede the eighth fewest shots on target (26.0), but I can comfortably look past that at this value.
Key stat: The forward is 3-1 against this wager this season.
Best NHL prop predictions
Lafreniere to record a point (-108): I want to finish things off by fading the Leafs’ defence in some capacity.
Through four games, the Leafs are allowing 27.8 shots and 3.8 goals per game. Both numbers rank in the bottom half of the NHL.
New York has struggled mightily to score, getting shut out three times in five games, but all those contests were at home.
On the road, the Rangers have scored 10 goals in two games. It’s also safe to assume they will improve on their woeful 6.5% shooting rate (30th).
That brings me to Lafreniere. The former first overall pick is finally getting his opportunity with the Rangers.
After the departure of a few key forwards in the offseason, Lafreniere now skates on the first line and top power play unit.
He has just two points in five games, but almost every skater on the Rangers is underperforming thanks to their play at Madison Square Garden.
The good news is he gets a lot of ice time and has taken the second-most shots on the team. Everyone on the Rangers is due for more offence, and Lafreniere is a top candidate to chip in.
Maple Leafs picks made at 9:06 a.m. ET 10/16/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.