Two quarterbacks and a rookie running back make up this week’s NFL prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Jordan Love and Justin Herbert are gunslingers, and I’m backing each of them to show out on the West Coast. Love takes on an Arizona Cardinals team with a porous secondary, and Herbert looks to defeat the red-hot Indianapolis Colts at home.
Check out my top Week 7 NFL prop bets, featuring a best bet on Cleveland Browns RB Quinshon Judkins.
NFL prop bets: Week 7
Best bet: Judkins over 92.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Browns have struggled to draft elite offensive talent recently, but it looks like they hit a home run with Judkins.
The Ohio State product has been a workhorse so far, averaging 16.8 attempts and 76.6 yards per game through five games.
That nets out to a tidy 4.6 yards per attempt.
Judkins struggled to get going last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers (12 carries, 36 yards), but he had 80-plus rushing yards in each of the three games before that.
Cleveland was at a severe disadvantage in its most recent contest, flying back from London to play a road game against a Pittsburgh team coming off a bye.
He should have a much better outing at home against this Dolphins squad.
Miami is giving up the most rushing yards per game (168.5) and the third-most yards per attempt (5.6).
With 50-60 mph expected wind gusts in Cleveland, both teams will want to keep the ball on the ground.
Key stat: Three of the last four straight starting RBs to play the Dolphins have cleared this line.
Best NFL picks
Love over 232.5 passing yards (-115): The biggest risk with this play, in my opinion, is that the Packers build a big enough lead where they can just run the ball.
But Green Bay’s ground attack hasn’t been amazing, and Arizona’s run defence has been strong.
- Packers: 30th in run block win rate (69%)
- Cardinals: 9th in run stop win rate (31%)
Josh Jacobs just churned out 93 rushing yards at 5.2 per attempt against the Cincinnati Bengals, but he’d failed to crack 4.0 yards per attempt in the four games before that.
I think the Packers will go all-in on the passing game against a Cardinals defence ranking 24th in EPA per dropback and 10th in EPA per rush.
Love has smashed this mark in consecutive games, logging 259 passing yards against the Bengals and 337 passing yards against the Dallas Cowboys.
Herbert over 1.5 passing TDs (-122): The Colts are off to a stellar 5-1 start, but I’m not sold on their secondary.
Indianapolis dominated QBs like Tua Tagovailoa, Cam Ward and Geno Smith but has gotten lit up by some better arms.
- Bo Nix: 22-of-30, 206 yards, three passing TDs
- Matthew Stafford: 29-for-31, 375 yards, three passing TDs
Even journeyman Jacoby Brissett managed to throw for 320 yards and two passing TDs against Indy last week.
Herbert is an elite talent and should be asked to throw the ball plenty with RBs Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton sidelined.
NFL prop bets made at 12 p.m. ET on 10/16/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.