The ALCS shifts to Seattle on Wednesday when the Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays for Game 3 at T-Mobile Park.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has quickly fallen down 2-0 after dropping both games at home and will need its big trade deadline acquisition to come through to get back in this series.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks, featuring predictions on starting pitchers Shane Bieber and George Kirby.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks
Best bet: Bieber over 14.5 outs (-120)
Among the biggest reasons I like Bieber to clear this line has nothing to do with him.
- Max Scherzer is lined up to start Game 4 on Thursday and will most certainly be on a super short leash.
- Scherzer had a rough end to the season and hasn’t pitched since Sept. 24. He has pitched simulated games to stay stretched out after being left off the ALDS roster, but nothing can replicate real action.
- In all likelihood, Thursday will be Scherzer as a quasi-opener in a bullpen-heavy game with a potential Game 5 on Friday.
- The Blue Jays are entering must-win territory, but an early move to the bullpen in Game 3 seems unwise, if avoidable.
Of course, Bieber has to do his part. He isn’t going to eat innings unless he’s earned it through his performance.
He didn’t do that in his lone postseason start vs. the New York Yankees, getting lifted after 2.2 innings of three-run ball and hard contact.
But there’s reason for optimism:
- Bieber allowed two runs or fewer in five of seven regular-season starts and more than three runs once.
- The right-hander had an excellent K/BB rate, doing a good job handling factors he has the most control over.
- He struggled to keep the ball in the yard, but T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball and allows home runs at a below-average rate.
The circumstances and venue are optimal for Bieber, despite the series deficit.
Key stat: Bieber went at least five innings in all seven regular-season starts.
Blue Jays best bet
Toronto ML (+110): With no significant starting pitching advantage for Game 3, even if Kirby is in better form than Bieber, the value is with Toronto.
The Blue Jays had the best offence in the second half of the season and then dismantled the Yankees. Two bad games don’t rewrite the narrative.
Toronto is a high-contact team that’s going to put the ball in play. That hasn’t mattered much this series, but good things can happen when defences are forced to accumulate the vast majority of outs.
- Four of the top five teams in contact rate made the playoffs. Three of the five with the lowest K rate made the postseason.
- The Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers were two of those teams. Toronto was No. 1 in the majors in both categories.
- Toronto has struck out just nine times this series. The Mariners have fanned 25 times.
So it’s not just Tarik Skubal that’s been blowing smoke by Seattle, which had an LDS-high 27.8% K rate.
Despite the Mariners’ big pop, the club was unsurprisingly a better offensive club on the road.
At their offensively challenged ballpark, it’s going to be tougher to win games when that pop isn’t playing up as much and the lineup is getting retired on strikes.
MLB pitching prop
Kirby under 4.5 strikeouts (-130): This line is light for good reason.
Starting pitchers are 0-6 against this number vs. Toronto this postseason:
- Luis Gil: 2 Ks
- Max Fried: 1 K
- Carlos Rodon: 2 Ks
- Cam Schlittler: 2 Ks
- Bryce Miller: 3 Ks
- Logan Gilbert: 2 Ks
Those are good strikeout arms, some even elite.
Kirby has been dealing and piling up Ks, hitting this in five straight. But context is important.
- He got a strikeout-prone Tigers team twice in the ALDS.
- His last start in the regular season was against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were sitting several regulars (10 Ks).
- Two starts before that, when he struck out a career-high 14 batters, it came against the Angels, who had the No. 1 K rate in MLB.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 10/15/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.