The Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons kick off Week 6’s Monday Night Football doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo looks to shake off its first loss of the season when it heads to Atlanta to take on a Falcons team coming off a bye. The Bills are 4.5-point road favourites at the time of writing, in a game with a sky-high 50 over/under.
Check out my Bills vs. Falcons picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Oct. 13, featuring a prop bet on James Cook.
Bills vs. Falcons picks
Best Bet: Cook 70+ rushing yards (-121)
Weekly prizes & bet boosts: Beat the Spread Challenge: ENTER NOW!
It feels like Cook’s hot start is really flying under the radar.
The dynamic tailback has fully assumed bell-cow status in Buffalo’s offence. Check out the numbers he’s put up through five weeks of play.
- Second in rushing yards (450)
- Second in rushing TDs (five)
- Fourth in rushing attempts (94)
- Ninth in YPA, min. 40 carries (5.0)
Cook is going to get a boatload of touches no matter what, and this should be a good matchup for him to run wild.
The Falcons’ defence ranks 23rd in opponent yards per carry and 27th in rush success rate, per RBDSM.com. The team’s secondary has been elite, allowing the fewest passing yards per game, so a run-heavy approach should be top of Sean McDermott’s mind.
Cook was bottled up by the New England Patriots last week, but had three straight games of 100-plus rushing yards before that.
Bet on a bounce back.
Key stat: Cook is averaging the second-most rushing yards per game (90.0).
Other Monday Night Football picks
Bills -4.5 (-110): This feels like a bit of a trap line, but I don’t care.
Buffalo had an uncharacteristic three turnovers in its home loss to New England, and still managed to put up 20 points in the loss.
That came after four consecutive 30-point weeks and three consecutive two-score victories. The Bills’ offensive ceiling is sky high, and I expect them to light up the scoreboard in primetime.
Josh Allen is 9-3 straight up on the road (or a neutral site) after a loss, winning those games by an average of 9.9 points.
It’s worth noting that Atlanta has a substantial rest advantage, having last played in Week 4.
But the Falcons’ offence hasn’t impressed me so far, and WR2 Darnell Mooney is out with an injury. This should be a high-scoring game, and I just don’t think Atlanta will keep up.
Bills vs. Falcons picks made at 3:15 p.m. ET 10/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.