The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners battle for a World Series spot, with each team trying to draw first blood in Game 1 at Rogers Centre on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has a nice rest advantage after clinching its ALCS ticket on Wednesday, and is favoured to win the series opener behind Kevin Gausman. Seattle had to use seven pitchers in its 15-inning Game 5 win over the Detroit Tigers, and will have few options to turn to in Game 1.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Anthony Santander and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets
Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (+123)
This might seem like a bold play given Seattle’s elite pitching depth, but have you seen what Toronto’s done in the postseason so far?
- 8.5 runs per game (first)
- .338 batting average (first)
- .601 slugging percentage (first)
- 16.1% strikeout rate (first)
Are the Jays due for a little regression? Probably. But I don’t think it happens on Sunday.
Seattle was forced to empty the tank against Detroit in the final game of the NLDS. It deployed seven pitchers and three starters (George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert) in the win.
That means the only fully-rested starter is Miller, who has been awful this season.
Miller owns a 5.68 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP and ranks in the 25th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, K rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.
MLB.com predicts Miller will start Game 1, and I think Toronto could clear this line before he exits the game.
Key stat: Toronto’s lineup is batting .333 with a .538 SLG against Miller in 39 combined at-bats.
Other MLB postseason predictions
Guerrero to score (+100): I really can’t believe Guerrero is plus money to score.
Toronto’s $500 million man lived up to the hype against the New York Yankees in the ALDS. He posted a .529/.550/.1.059 slash line through four games, belting three home runs and scoring five runs.
Seattle will probably want to pitch around Guerrero, which is fine, because a walk will put us in a great position here.
But if the Mariners try to pitch to him, even better.
Behind Guerrero is a red-hot lineup featuring names like Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement swinging the bat well.
Bo Bichette also might get the start, which is intriguing.
Santander over 1.5 bases (+170): If Bichette starts, Santander may start the game on the bench. So keep an eye on that leading up to game time.
But if the power-hitting outfielder plays, I expect fireworks.
Santander had just two singles in the ALDS, but put together some quality at-bats, signifying to me that he’s seeing the ball well.
He’s seeing 4.23 pitches per at-bat this season, which is second among Jays players on the ALCS roster.
Santander has also had Miller’s number, going 4-for-10 against the righty with a home run. He has a stellar .835 xSLG in those at-bats.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 1:15 p.m. on 10/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.