A pair of cross-conference Super Bowl hopefuls meet in Week 6 on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs are second and fourth, respectively, on the current Super Bowl 60 odds leaderboard. KC is a modest home favourite this week despite some truly stellar play of late on the Lions’ side.
Check out my Lions vs. Chiefs picks for the Sunday Night Football matchup on Oct. 12, featuring a prop prediction on David Montgomery.
Lions vs. Chiefs picks
Best bet: Montgomery over 10.5 rush attempts (-125)
The Lions should want to run the ball a lot on Sunday night. To me, this line is a smash play.
- For one thing, the Lions already run the ball a lot. They rank third in the NFL in run play percentage (49.67%), per Team Rankings.
- The Chiefs’ run defence has struggled mightily. It ranks 30th in rush success rate and 31st in EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com.
The catch is that Montgomery is the 1B in Detroit’s two-man backfield, having handed the 1A reins to Jahmyr Gibbs. So if Gibbs is rolling, Montgomery could see a smaller piece of the pie.
That wasn’t the case last week, though, when Montgomery rumbled for 65 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against the Bengals.
Gibbs, meanwhile, had 12 carries for 54 yards.
It was the first time this season that Montgomery out-touched Gibbs on the ground since Week 1. I’m not expecting that to become a trend, but it tells me there’s room for both to be active.
Jared Goff is capable of airing it out, but Detroit’s offensive identity starts with its two-headed monster in the backfield. Montgomery has been steadily involved all season, and that shouldn’t change.
Key stat: Montgomery is 4-1 vs. this rush attempts prop, averaging 12.2 attempts per game.
Sunday Night Football ATS pick
Lions +2.5 (-110): Detroit’s Week 1 flop in Green Bay feels like a distant memory.
That was the Lions’ first game without its Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, the former offensive and defensive coordinators who departed in the offseason for head coaching gigs. Maybe the team just needed a little longer to gel without them.
From Week 2 onward, Detroit is 4-0 SU and ATS with a +76 point differential. The Lions are also No. 1 in offensive EPA and No. 2 in defensive EPA in that span.
I like the Lions to win outright at plus money, but backing them with a couple of extra points doesn’t hurt, either.
Since Dan Campbell took over as head coach in 2021, Detroit is 24-11 ATS as an underdog (68.6%, No. 2 hit rate in the NFL).
Kansas City has one fewer day of rest and is just 1-2 SU as a favourite on the season.
Lions vs. Chiefs picks made at 4:27 p.m. ET 10/10/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.