One running back, one wideout and one tight end are featured in this week’s NFL TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Tucker Kraft has found the end zone twice at Lambeau Field already this season, and he draws an excellent matchup to get back in there on Sunday. In Pittsburgh, I’m looking for Quinshon Judkins to turn his mountain of red zone opportunities into points for the visiting Browns.
Check out my top Week 6 NFL TD picks, featuring Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
NFL TD picks: Week 6
Best bet: Kraft to score (+150)
Coming off a bye to play the woeful Cincinnati Bengals at home, the Green Bay Packers are the heftiest favourites of the week. They should win comfortably, and Kraft should get in on the fun.
Kraft balled out in Weeks 1 and 2 at home. He this bet in both games while posting a combined eight catches for 140 yards and two TDs.
The third-year tight end was an inch or two away from scoring in Green Bay’s most recent game (Week 4 at Dallas), but he tacked just shy of the end zone.
Dallas has one of the weakest defences in the NFL, and so does Cincinnati. The Bengals rank 30th in both points and yards allowed.
Cincy is also among the very worst at defending tight ends. The team has allowed four receiving touchdowns to opposing TEs, as well as the second-most catches per game (6.8) and the fourth-most yards (69.0).
As a 14.5-point favourite in a game with a 44.5-point over/under, Green Bay has an NFL-high implied total this week (29.5 points).
Backing someone as heavily involved as Kraft at this price feels like a bargain.
Key stat: Kraft leads the Packers in targets (20), receptions (16) and receiving yards (225).
Best NFL touchdown bets
Smith-Njigba to score (+105): As a second-year wideout in 2024, Smith-Njigba cleared 1,100 receiving yards and made the Pro Bowl. But his true breakout seems to be happening right now.
Through five games, JSN is second in the league in receiving yards (534) and first in yards per touch (14.7). He has 75+ yards in every game so far.
Smith-Njigba isn’t a hyper-targeted red zone guy, which is the one downside here. But his three red zone targets so far still lead the Seahawks.
Also, JSN has a catch of 40+ yards in four of five games. And 10 total catches of 20+ yards.
So even if he’s not peppered with passes in the red zone, his big-play ability can get him across the line.
On Sunday, JSN faces a Jaguars squad that has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers (tied for fourth-most in the NFL, per Sports Reference)
Judkins to score (+105): After a tumultuous offseason and an absence in Week 1, Judkins has taken over Cleveland’s backfield.
- Last week, he accounted for 23 of 29 rush attempts among Browns running backs.
- His carry count has risen every game since his Week 2 debut: 10, 18, 21, 23.
The red zone involvement for Judkins has been significant, too.
From Week 3 onward, Judkins has 14 red zone touches (all carries). The rest of the Cleveland offence has 11 RZ touches combined.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defence hasn’t had as many teeth as you’d typically expect. Right now, the group ranks 20th in success rate, per RBSDM.com, and outside the top 20 in points and yards allowed.
A low-scoring game is expected, but Judkins has the best chance of anyone to punch it in.
NFL TD picks made at 1:55 p.m. ET on 10/10/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.