The Philadelphia Phillies need another road win on Thursday to push their NLDS matchup to a fifth and final game.
The pregame narrative: Philly won Game 3 last night, 8-2, against a Los Angeles Dodgers squad that had won its first four playoff matchups. The Dodgers are slight favourites to win tonight’s home matchup and advance to the NLCS.
Check out my Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions for Oct. 9, featuring prop bets on Cristopher Sanchez and Teoscar Hernandez.
Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions
Parlay: Sanchez over 5.5 Ks | Phillies +0.5 – F5 | Hernandez over 0.5 hits (+240)
Sanchez over 5.5 strikeouts (-108): Philadelphia lost Game 1 with Sanchez on the mound, but I wouldn’t hang the L on him.
The nasty left-hander tossed 5.2 innings of two-run ball, striking out eight and leaving with the lead. His bullpen failed him.
In a do-or-die game, Sanchez’s leash could be shorter than usual. But do you really want to rush to a bullpen that couldn’t hold its end of the bargain when he last pitched?
- In three outings vs. the Dodgers this year, Sanchez is 3-0 vs. this prop. He has 23 Ks over 18.1 innings in that span.
- Dating back to the start of August, Sanchez has a 2.45 ERA over 12 starts while averaging 6.8 Ks per game.
According to Baseball Savant, Sanchez ranks in the 84th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and walk rate.
MLB SGP legs
Phillies +0.5 – first five innings (-138): This is another way to back the Sanchez-led Phillies, who are 2-1 vs. this wager in his three starts against L.A. this year.
The Phillies are 3-0 on this F5 run line in this series, too.
Tyler Glasnow will start for the Dodgers, and you could argue he’s had too much rest. He was available out of the bullpen in the wild-card series but didn’t pitch, meaning he hasn’t worked in a game in nearly two weeks.
Glasnow’s only start against the Phillies this season was all the way back in April, so I’m not going to put much stock in it.
But it was a disaster, as he allowed two hits, five walks and five earned runs in just 2.0 IP.
Since Glasnow returned from the injured list in July, the Dodgers are 4-9 vs. a -0.5 F5 run line in his outings.
Hernandez over 0.5 hits (-239): Hernandez couldn’t crack Sanchez in Game 1, striking out three times against the southpaw before belting the go-ahead homer off Phillies reliever Matt Strahm later on.
The ex-Blue Jay still has solid numbers vs. Sanchez, though, and against LHPs in his career.
- vs. Sanchez: 5-for-15, two HRs, two doubles (.867 SLG)
- vs. LHPs: .275/.329/.549 slash line, 136 wRC+
Hernandez was hitless last time out, but he’d cashed this bet in 10 straight playoff games before that. And he’s still 7-for-21 with a 1.173 OPS through five postseason games this year.
Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions as of 10:20 a.m. on 10/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.