One Canadian takes part in the quarterfinal at the Shanghai Masters on Friday morning.
The pre-match narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime is playing his best tennis right now, and I’ll continue to back him to dominate lower-ranked competitors. In the other QF on Friday, Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev meet for the 12th time in their careers.
Check out my top Shanghai Masters predictions for the quarterfinal.
Shanghai Masters predictions: Quarterfinal
Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime -1.5 sets (-117)
The Canadian is on an absolute tear.
- He’s 11-2 in his last 13 matches, with both losses coming against Jannik Sinner.
- One of those wins was over his quarterfinal opponent, Artur Rinderkneck, at the U.S. Open.
Auger-Aliassime was battering his counterpart before the Frenchman retired down big in the third set.
That makes him 2-0 in this matchup in 2025. He won all four completed sets and was on his way to winning the fifth before Rinderkneck’s retirement.
Auger-Aliassime is having an incredible hard-court season. He’s 29-9 on the playing surface and has won all three matches and the Shanghai Masters in straight sets.
He holds the advantage in the head-to-head matchup and is simply the better player.
Rinderkneck owns a below .500 record in 2025 (29-31). It is worth noting, however, that he has three quality wins at this event, including knocking off the world No. 3 Alexander Zverev.
But Zverev is in a rough patch. He’s lost five of his past eight, which includes being eliminated by Auger-Aliassime at the U.S. Open.
That victory isn’t enough to convince me Rinderkneck has what it takes to be competitive with Auger-Aliassime on hard courts.
Key stat: Rinderkneck has a pitiful 12-14 record on the playing surface in 2025.
Tennis best bet: de Minaur vs. Medvedev
de Minaur -2.5 games (-127): Medvedev has turned a corner late in the season. He is 33-20 in 2025, which is on pace to be his worst yearly record since 2017.
But at the end of August, he got a new coach, and the results have been promising. Medvedev has won seven of nine matches since the change.
But I think he’s met his match in the quarterfinal.
de Minaur is arguably the hottest player on tour. He is an incredible 50-18 record in 2025 and is 30-10 on hard courts.
The Australian has won 16 of his past 19 matches and has yet to lose a set at the Shanghai Masters.
Medvedev has the head-to-head edge here, winning seven of the 11 matches between these two.
But it was de Minaur who had the last laugh. He’s played Medvedev once in 2025 and smoked him in straight sets (6-2, 6-2).
Tennis predictions made at 11:09 a.m. on 10/09/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.