Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headlines Wednesday’s postseason prop pick recommendations for MLB’s four-game playoff slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Guerrero has been tearing the cover off the ball and his Blue Jays can advance to the ALCS with a win over the New York Yankees. Three other teams can also punch their tickets to the next round.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for today’s playoff games, featuring predictions on Freddie Freeman and Jameson Taillon.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125) & 1+ RBI (+190)
Will the Yankees be more selective pitching to Guerrero tonight? You would think so. And they did intentionally walk him last night, but each situation is unique when it comes to those decisions.
Here’s what we do know: Guerrero is hitting the ball as well as anyone on the planet.
In three games this series, he’s batting .615, slugging 1.308 and has a 1.908 OPS.
- Vladdy has 2+ hits each game.
- He has driven in 2+ runs each game.
- Guerrero has a HR in every game.
The Blue Jays star has mashed at Yankee Stadium throughout his career and he destroyed New York pitching this season.
Guerrero hit .373/.439/.569 against the Yanks and the lack of meetings against New York starter Cam Schlittler should have no impact on the first baseman’s confidence.
Vladdy has four hits in five career at-bats against Schlittler, the rookie who punched out 12 over eight dominant innings in the wild-card series.
Schlittler didn’t enjoy the same success against the Blue Jays, who handed him his shortest career start (1.2 innings, five hits, four runs) in September.
He went five innings vs. Toronto in July, allowing seven hits. Schlittler combined for five Ks in those two starts.
Vladdy will likely slot No. 3 in the order, with two capable bats ahead of him in George Springer and Nathan Lukes.
The flame-throwing Schlittler relies heavily on his fastball-cutter combination, throwing the two pitches nearly 75% of the time.
Key stat: Guerrero was fourth in MLB, minimum 200 pitches seen, in both expected batting average vs. four-seam fastballs and cutters (per Baseball Savant).
MLB postseason player props
Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+116): No player in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup has seen Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola more than Freeman.
While the stats aren’t pretty (.237/.326/.368 over 86 plate appearances), I love how much familiarity Freeman will have in this matchup. And he’ll enjoy the platoon advantage.
Nola started the year injured and had the worst season of his career. He struggled vs. left-handed hitters (.862 OPS), and Freeman is one of the best of them.
The 2024 World Series MVP ended the year strong, too.
- Freeman blasted 13 of his 24 homers in the final two months.
- He slugged .561 over that stretch, averaging 2.2 total bases per game.
Freeman will slot behind Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, providing him with a good chance to hit with runners on. Whether it’s Nola or Philadelphia’s relievers, pitchers will likely have to challenge him.
Taillon over 2.5 Ks (-143): The Chicago Cubs are facing elimination, so you can expect Taillon to be working with a short leash.
But he’s been throwing the ball exceptionally well, giving me confidence that he’s not an auto-pull once he sees the top of Milwaukee’s lineup for the second time.
Since coming off the injured list in August, Taillon has allowed two runs or fewer in all seven starts. That includes one postseason start against the San Diego Padres.
The challenges working against him are clear:
- He was lifted after four innings in the wild-card round, and perhaps that’s the max he sees tonight.
- The Brewers aren’t a strikeout-heavy team.
But Taillon is 8-2 vs. this line in his last 10 starts and was superb in two of his three starts vs. Milwaukee this season.
MLB prop picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 10/08/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.