The Los Angeles Dodgers can punch their NLCS ticket on Wednesday when they host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of the divisional series.
The pregame narrative: After picking up a pair of wins in Philadelphia, the Dodgers are favoured to complete the sweep tonight behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Phillies turn to long-time stud Aaron Nola in this do-or-die matchup.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions for Oct. 8, featuring prop bets on Mookie Betts and Alec Bohm.
Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions
Parlay: Phillies +3.5 | Bohm to record a hit | Betts over 1.5 bases (+320)
Phillies +3.5 (-480): I don’t expect the 96-win Phillies to roll over tonight.
Philadelphia went 44-37 on the run line this year as visitors, with a +0.4 average margin of victory. It has covered this huge number in seven of eight games against L.A., including both this series.
Yamamoto is an elite arm who will likely keep scoring down, but I think Philly can hold serve.
Nola hasn’t had a great season by any means, but has held this Dodgers lineup to a collective .220 batting average over a 262 plate appearance sample size.
And it’s expected Ranger Suarez (3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) will be available out of the pen if things get dicey.
MLB SGP legs
Bohm to record a hit (-175): Bohm is a solid candidate to get after Yamamoto.
The third baseman is just 1-for-6 in this series, but is coming off a scorching September where he slashed .345/.371/.534.
He is an elite contact hitter, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in xBA (.284), whiff rate (14.6%) and K rate (16.3%). Pair that with a 20th percentile walk rate (5.3%) and you’ve got a great recipe for success.
Bohm is 0-for-3 against Yamamoto but has never struck out, and never whiffed on a pitch.
That gives me confidence he’ll put the ball in play and come through with a hit.
Betts over 1.5 bases (+108): Adding Betts to clear this total more than triples the SGPs value from -125 to +320. That’s all due to the negative correlation between him performing and Philly covering +3.5.
I already explained why I think Philadelphia can comfortably cover that number, and will let Betts’ stats speak for themselves:
- In the playoffs: .389/.421/.556, three XBH
- In September: .299/.343/.557, 12 XBH
- vs. Nola: 9-for-23 (.391), one double, two HR
Betts is red-hot, facing a pitcher he’s dominated before, and has protection batting behind Shohei Ohtani. I love the value here.
Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions as of 10:30 a.m. on 10/08/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.