Either the Detroit Tigers or the Seattle Mariners will be on the verge of advancing to the ALCS following Tuesday’s Game 3 matchup in the Motor City.
The pregame narrative: The Tigers and Mariners split the first two games out west, turning this into effectively a best-of-three series. Logan Gilbert has racked up a ton of strikeouts against Detroit this season, and he’ll try to keep that rolling today.
Check out my Mariners vs. Tigers predictions for ALDS Game 3, featuring prop bets on Gilbert and Zach McKinstry.
Mariners vs. Tigers predictions
Parlay: McKinstry under 0.5 hits | Under 8.5 runs | Gilbert over 5.5 Ks (+330)
McKinstry under 0.5 hits (+128): McKinstry was an all-star this year for the first time, but he really took his foot off the gas in the second half.
- Pre-all-star: .285/.364/.472 slash line, hitless in 28 of 80 starts (35.0%)
- Post-all-star (56 games): .213/.278/.378 slash line, hitless in 23 of 48 starts (47.9%)
For a guy who entered 2025 with a career 77 OPS+, this seems like a classic regression to the mean.
McKinstry ranks in the 24th percentile or worse in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, xSLG and average exit velocity. He went 0-for-2 with a strikeout and a walk when he last faced Gilbert (July 13).
So far in the postseason, McKinstry is 1-for-16 (.063) with eight strikeouts.
MLB SGP legs
Under 8.5 runs (-155): Toronto scored more runs in Game 2 of its ALDS series (13) than Seattle has in its last five games combined (11). Runs have been at a premium for the Mariners, to say the least.
But the Tigers have been worse.
Detroit has a .186/.289/.256 slash line through five playoff games, with just eight extra-base hits as a team. The Tigers, frankly, have been a tough watch.
- This under is 4-1 in Detroit’s five playoff games so far, including both matchups in this series against Seattle.
- The average total in the Tigers’ postseason games is 5.8 runs.
Logan Gilbert has a 2.52 ERA and an 11.0 K/9 rate over his past seven starts, while Jack Flaherty has posted a 34.5 K% vs. the Mariners’ active lineup.
Both pitchers should be able to carve.
Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts (-220): I’ve got more to say about Gilbert, who’s been among the very best strikeout pitchers when healthy this season.
- Gilbert didn’t throw quite enough innings to be a qualified pitcher, but among 95 guys with 130+ innings he led the way with an 11.9 K/9.
- He averaged 6.9 Ks per start this season and went 19-6 vs. this prop.
- Gilbert started twice against the Tigers and racked up 19 Ks over just 10.1 innings.
Detroit has been striking out a ton in the postseason, posting a 29.6 K%. That’s up from its 23.9 K% during the regular season, which was fourth-highest in MLB.
Mariners vs. Tigers picks as of 11:16 a.m. on 10/07/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.