After a pair of dominant home victories, the Toronto Blue Jays can close out their ALDS matchup on the road on Tuesday against the New York Yankees.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is 9-3 vs. New York since June, and now the team sits one win away from its first ALCS berth since 2016. The Jays collected 29 hits in the first two games of this series, and they’ll look to keep the offence rolling against Carlos Rodon.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions for ALDS Game 3, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Aaron Judge.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions
Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Guerrero to record a hit | Rodon under 5.5 Ks | Judge under 0.5 RBI (+310)
Blue Jays ML (+135): At first, it seemed a bit strange that the Blue Jays would push back Shane Bieber and roll with the inexperienced Trey Yesavage for Game 2.
But in hindsight, it makes perfect sense — and it puts Toronto in position to win this series tonight.
After sheltering Yesavage a bit with a start at home, Toronto turns to Bieber, an eight-year vet and Cy Young winner, in a hostile road environment.
Bieber has really encouraging numbers against the Yankees’ active lineup in 55 plate appearances:
- .154 BA
- .288 SLG
- 32.7 K%
- 5.5 BB%
In the 2022 ALDS, Bieber tossed 5.2 innings of two-run ball at Yankee Stadium to help guide the Cleveland Guardians to victory.
The Jays are 10-5 vs. New York this year, and they’ve won both matchups with Carlos Rodon on the mound. Their 111 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers ranked fourth in MLB during the regular season.
After outscoring the Yankees 23-8 in the first two games of the series, I think the Jays will get it done tonight.
MLB SGP legs
Guerrero to record a hit (-245): I’m certainly comfortable playing Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+128) as a standalone, but in this SGP I’ll steer toward a safer option.
Guerrero has been electric so far in this series, going 6-for-9 with two home runs and one seismic bat flip.
He also has awesome numbers against Rodon: 10-for-17 (.588) with a home run, three doubles and four walks.
The five-time all-star underwhelmed in his first season after inking a $500 million extension. But he’s having a moment right now, and Yankee Stadium is a stage he’s performed well on many times before.
Since 2023, Guerrero has a .344/.417/.734 slash line in 17 games in the Bronx.
Rodon under 5.5 strikeouts (-177): Rodon closed out the regular season strong, posting a 2.52 ERA over his final 10 starts. But he didn’t have to punch a ton of guys out to make that happen.
In that span, Rodon averaged 4.7 Ks per game and went under this strikeout total eight times.
The left-hander has a 22.6% K rate against the Blue Jays’ lineup in 133 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant, which is just south of a league-average rate.
Not bad, but not good enough for me to want the over on this market.
This under is 2-0 in Rodon’s two starts vs. Toronto in 2025. And the Blue Jays had the lowest K rate in the majors during the regular season (17.8%).
Keep in mind that Rodon’s leash should be shorter with the Yankees’ season on the line. He’s a quick hook candidate if Toronto gets the bats going.
Fade Judge amid so-so playoff showing
Judge under 0.5 RBI (-180): Judge has dreadful career numbers vs. Bieber, and his overall postseason output is not what you’d expect from a multi-time MVP.
It can still be scary to fade his total bases prop, though, so I think this is a good way to bet an under for the towering outfielder.
- Judge is batting in the No. 2 spot, which makes him a logical pitch-around candidate and means he likely won’t have a lot of basepath traffic in front of him.
- In his career vs. Bieber, Judge is 1-for-13 with eight Ks and a 50.0% whiff rate.
- Since the 2022 postseason, Judge is batting .214 and has gone under this RBI prop in 19 of 28 games.
Blue Jays picks as of 9:26 a.m. on 10/07/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.