Travis Kelce hasn’t scored since Week 1, but he’s my best bet to find the end zone on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Kansas City Chiefs are still looking Kelce’s way in the red zone on a consistent basis, and I don’t see why that would change now. For a play with slightly longer odds, look to KC’s short-yardage running back, Kareem Hunt.
Check out our top Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF TD picks for Oct. 6.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars TD picks: Week 5
Best Bet: Kelce to score a TD (+140)
At 36 years old, Kelce is not the yardage generator or touchdown machine that he once was. But the future Hall of Famer is still a consistent presence in the red zone, and that has my attention.
- Kelce is the only Chief to be targeted inside the red zone in all four games this season.
- He has an 85.2% route participation rate, according to Player Profiler, which is seventh among tight ends
Kelce has yet to convert any of his four red zone targets (including two inside the 10-yard line) into points. But if KC is going to be patient with any of its pass-catchers, it’s going to be the veteran TE.
Teams haven’t put up much success in the ground game against Jacksonville, so I think this matchup could be advantageous for Kelce, too.
The Jaguars have only allowed one rushing TD through four games. They’re also holding opponents to an NFL-low rushing success rate in the NFL (28.6%), per RBSDM.com.
Kelce caught all of his targets for a season-high five receptions last week and is still at the core of what the Chiefs’ offensive strategy.
Key stat: In two games against the Jaguars since 2022, Kelce has 10 catches for 107 yards and two TDs (going 2-0 vs. this prop).
Monday Night Football TD picks
Hunt to score a TD (+180): I did just highlight the Jaguars’ stoutness as a run defence, but I think Hunt is worth a flier at these odds.
KC’s rushing attack has been miserable, evidenced by the fact that Patrick Mahomes is the leading rusher (130 yards, two TDs).
This isn’t about Hunt potentially having a huge week. It’s merely a belief that he’ll continue seeing the most valuable carries available.
- Hunt is the only Chiefs tailback with a carry inside the 10-yard line.
- He’s had six red zone carries over the past three games. Half of those have been from inside the 10.
Last week, Hunt led a muddled backfield in snap share, with Isiah Pacheco and Brashard Smith trailing behind.
Smith, a rookie, could continue to get more run as a change-of-pace back. But he doesn’t have any red zone carries yet, so I’m not overly concerned there.
In a game where the Chiefs are favoured and Hunt has a solidly defined role as the short-yardage runner, this anytime TD price really stands out.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars TD picks made at 12:02 p.m. ET on 10/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.