The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills meet in primetime in Week 5.
The pregame narrative: Josh Allen can set an NFL record on Sunday Night Football if he has another touchdown-filled evening. Look for the star quarterback to flaunt his dual-threat skills in a pivotal AFC East matchup.
Check out our top Patriots vs. Bills SNF TD picks, featuring wagers on Allen and Keon Coleman.
Patriots vs. Bills TD picks: Week 5
Best Bet: Allen to score a TD (-134)
Allen is tied with Cam Newton for the most games in NFL history with both a passing and rushing touchdown (45).
He can take sole possession of that record on Sunday night, and I expect him to do so.
- Allen has three rushing touchdowns in four games.
- He’s rushed the ball 6+ times in three of four games, setting a high floor as a runner.
This is nothing new for the superstar QB. He has 30 rushing TDs since the start of the 2023 season.
Allen has run the ball 10 times in the red zone this season, leading to three scores. Only Jalen Hurts has more QB carries inside the 20-yard line.
New England’s defence blitzes over 20% of the time but has an abysmal 2.9% hurry rate. That would work against this wager for a pocket QB, but Allen will use the time to set up runs if his receivers are covered.
Key stat: Allen has scored in eight of his last 11 regular-season games.
Sunday Night Football TD picks
Coleman to score a TD (+175): Coleman looked like a breakout candidate after his Week 1 performance.
- 11 targets
- 8 receptions
- 112 yards
- 1 touchdown
In three games since, he has 11 targets, nine receptions and 91 receiving yards.
There are still some strong positives to look at, though.
Coleman has played 31 more snaps than any other Bills receiver, and he’s upped his catch rate significantly in his second season.
- Year 1: 50.9%
- Year 2: 77.3%
He’s clearly improved, and I think a solid season is still within the cards.
Coleman is the only player on the Bills to be targeted multiple times this season inside 10 yards, and he caught both passes.
Sean McDermott should look to utilize his young receiver even more in the red zone.
Patriots vs. Bills TD picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET on 10/05/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.