The Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars close out Week 5 with a must-see matchup on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Jacksonville has been humming under first-year head coach Liam Coen, and now tests its mettle against a Kansas City team coming off a statement win. The Jaguars are 3.5-point home underdogs and aim to snap a nine-game losing streak against the Chiefs.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Jaguars same-game parlay predictions for Week 5, featuring Travis Etienne and Patrick Mahomes.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars SGP predictions
SGP: Jaguars +7.5 | Etienne anytime TD | Etienne over 67.5 rushing yards | Mahomes 200+ passing yards (+330)
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Jaguars +7.5 (-230): If we’re being completely honest, I didn’t have the Jaguars being this competent on my bingo card.
Jacksonville is 3-1 straight up and ATS, with its only loss coming under crazy circumstances to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.
The squad is winning games in the trenches. It’s offence ranks fourth in rushing yards per game and seventh in EPA per rush, and its defence ranks 12th in EPA per rush and ninth in opponent yards per carry.
That bodes well for this matchup.
The Chiefs’ defence has gotten killed on the ground, ranking 28th in yards per attempt (4.9) and 31st in EPA per rush.
Kansas City is coming off its best offensive performance in a long time, a 37-20 win against the Baltimore Ravens, but I’m ready to declare John Harbaugh’s defence fraudulent.
Before that, it had failed to cover a 7.5-point spread in 17 of its prior 23 games. Banking a touchdown plus with the side seems pretty safe to me.
Monday Night Football SGP picks
Etienne over 64.5 rushing yards (-117) & anytime TD (+100): I’m expecting a huge game out of Etienne.
The fifth-year RB is having a renaissance season, ranking third in rushing yards (394) with a touchdown in three of four games.
He’s smashed this rushing total in three contests, most recently going for 124 yards on 19 carries against the San Francisco 49ers.
With the way KC’s run defence has been playing, Coen should be eager to give Etienne a boatload of carries.
Top Patrick Mahomes prop bet
Mahomes 200+ passing yards (-530): This heavily-teased down total boosts the SGPs value from +240 to +330, which is well worth it in my opinion.
Mahomes was spinning it last week against the Ravens, completing 25 of 37 passes for 270 yards. He is 3-1 against this line, throwing for at least 224 yards against every team except the Philadelphia Eagles.
Jacksonville’s defence has been elite so far, but Mahomes should still reach this mark with ease.
He is 17-6 against this line since the start of 2024.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions made at 11:00 a.m. on 10/05/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.