For the first time since 2016, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the American League Division Series — and their voyage starts Saturday against the New York Yankees.
The pregame narrative: Since the all-star break, Toronto’s offence has been humming. So has Kevin Gausman, who will get the ball for the home team this afternoon. The Blue Jays are 3-1 vs. the Yankees with Gausman on the mound this season.
Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Volpe.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets
Best bet: Blue Jays ML (-125)
It’s been a while since the excitement and expectations were this high for the Blue Jays, and they’re equipped to match that energy in Game 1.
Coming off the club’s highest win total since the early ’90s World Series years, Toronto is the top seed in the AL. That status came down to a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Yankees.
The Blue Jays went 8-5 vs. the Yankees this season, including 6-1 at home.
Gausman had a rough start in New York all the way back in April, but he turned the page for three strong outings over the summer:
- July 1: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 K
- July 21: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 8 K
- Sept. 5: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 5 K
The Yankees are seeing the best version of Gausman right now. Since the all-star break, he has a 2.81 ERA and a .201 opponent BA.
As for New York’s Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA), his underlying numbers tell a different story than his on-paper production.
Gil has had a nice year since returning from the injured list in August. I’m still not sold on his ability to shut down a talented lineup, though.
The right-hander ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in some key analytical metrics (per Baseball Savant): xERA, average exit velocity, ground ball rate, chase rate, strikeout rate and walk rate.
Toronto had the No. 1 offence in baseball in the second half, posting a 123 wRC+ and averaging 5.4 runs per game.
Backed by home-field advantage and a red-hot Gausman, I like the Jays to take Game 1.
Key stat: The Blue Jays have the best home record in the AL this season (54-27).
Other MLB postseason predictions
Guerrero to score (+110): High walk rates for Guerrero as a hitter and Gil as a pitcher steered me away from a total bases prediction today.
But I wanted something on Guerrero, and at plus-money odds, this is a way I’m happy to back him.
- Vladdy is 3-for-7 with two doubles and three walks vs. Gil.
- He ranked eighth in the regular season in runs (96) and third in on-base percentage (.381).
- In 154 starts, Guerrero scored 75 times (48.7%). That’s a slightly higher rate than the 48.1% implied probability on this prop price.
I’m sure the Yankees will try to be careful with Guerrero, and Gil’s wildness could lead to a free pass or two regardless. As long as Vladdy finds a way on, he’ll have a chance.
Volpe under 0.5 hits (+100): Volpe has four hits through three postseason games so far, but three of them were grounders that snuck through.
Over his final 26 starts in the regular season, Volpe cashed this under 13 times while batting just .198.
His .212 BA for the season was the second-worst among 145 qualified hitters.
Now he’ll face Gausman, who has excelled at keeping the shortstop quiet in the past. Volpe is just 3-for-24 vs. Gausman with one walk and 10 strikeouts.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds as of 11:36 a.m. on 10/04/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.