MLB’s division series begin on Saturday, and I’m targeting a trio of players in the final two games of the quadruple-header.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani gets the start for the Dodgers in Philadelphia, and that’s bad news for the Phillies’ chances to put runs on the board. On the flip side of that matchup, Teoscar Hernandez is swinging a hot bat and will have a platoon advantage.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday’s postseason action, featuring predictions on Kyle Schwarber and Kerry Carpenter.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Carpenter over 1.5 bases (+185), to get a hit (-134)
Depending on your appetite for risk, I have two predictions for the guy who’s somewhat generously nicknamed “Kerry Bonds.”
The left-hitting outfielder is off to a nice start in the postseason, batting 4-for-10 with a double and three walks. He has a hit in all three games and is 2-1 vs. this bases prop.
Carpenter slugged .512 against right-handed pitchers during the regular season, and his .512 xSLG on the season ranks in the 89th percentile (per Baseball Savant).
He also has crazy good numbers against Mariners righty George Kirby:
- 4-for-8
- 4 HRs
- 104 mph average exit velocity
Kirby is coming off the worst of his four seasons as a big-leaguer, posting a 4.21 ERA (90 ERA+). He also posted a 4.72 K/BB ratio, which was drastically lower than his two previous seasons (7.78, 9.05).
Still, Kirby’s 5.5% walk rate is among the highest in the majors, ranking in the 89th percentile.
And Carpenter seldom walks (3.9%, second percentile), so this is a great matchup to expect balls in play.
Key stat: Since the beginning of September, Carpenter has a .269 xBA, a 50% hard-hit rate and a 92.2 mph average exit velocity. For context, league averages in those categories are .252 xBA, 40.9% hard-hit rate and an 89.4 mph exit velo.
MLB postseason player props
Schwarber under 0.5 runs (-118): If you want to fade the Phillies with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, there are very few playable lines as standalones. But this is one of them.
Schwarber is the leadoff man for a very talented Phillies lineup, so naturally, he scores a lot.
But it’s a tough task to score on Ohtani, who kept Schwarber’s Phillies hitless through five innings on Sept. 16.
Ohtani has allowed just one run over his past four starts (19.2 innings) while striking out 27 batters.
Schwarber has massive power potential, but he has plenty of swing-and-miss, too. Over his past 35 games, he’s batting .192 with 45 Ks.
In that span, Schwarber has gone under 0.5 runs in 19 games (54.3%).
Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+140): Hernandez showed up big time in the Dodgers’ two-game sweep of the Reds in the wild-card series, and I expect him to stay hot on Saturday.
In the opening round of the playoffs, Hernandez went 4-for-10 with two home runs and a double vs. Cincinnati. He cashed this bet both times.
The ex-Blue Jay didn’t have his best year overall, but I’m still partial to backing him when there’s a lefty on the mound. Hernandez has a .549 SLG in his career against LHPs.
When facing Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez in particular, Hernandez is 5-for-12 with two homers and two doubles.
MLB prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 10/04/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.