The Buffalo Bills welcome a division rival on Sunday Night Football with their perfect season on the line.
The pregame narrative: The New England Patriots are playing above expectations, sporting a 2-2 record heading into Week 5. In saying that, the Bills are sizable 8-point favourites to win and improve on their lead atop the AFC East.
Check out my Patriots vs. Bills picks for the Sunday Night Football matchup on Oct. 5, featuring prop predictions on Drake Maye and Dalton Kincaid.
Patriots vs. Bills picks
Best bet: Maye over 222.5 passing yards (-118)
Let’s get the ugly out of the way first. Buffalo allows the fewest passing yards per game (125.8)
But that has to be taken with a grain of salt.
- Week 1: Lamar Jackson (14-for-19, 209 yards)
- Week 2: Justin Fields/Tyrod Taylor (10-for-21, 83 yards)
- Week 3: Tua Tagovailoa (22-for-34, 146 yards)
- Week 4: Spencer Rattler (18-for-27, 126 yards)
It’s safe to say the Bills haven’t faced the best quarterbacks. Jackson didn’t need to pass much due to the Baltimore Ravens rumbling for 238 rushing yards.
Now, let’s focus on Maye. He’s 3-1 against this line, averaging 247 passing yards.
In the one game he fell short, the Pats demolished the Carolina Panthers, 42-13, and Maye only needed to throw 17 times.
I can all but guarantee he won’t be in the position to cruise against the Bills and should get back up to his average of 30.8 attempts.
New England certainly doesn’t have the rushing attack that Baltimore does. Plus, the squad is a big underdog, and Maye would pass more playing from behind.
Key stat: In Maye’s only complete game against the Bills in his career, he completed 22-of-36 passes for 261 yards.
Sunday Night Football prop pick
Kincaid anytime touchdown (+210): Kincaid has been Josh Allen’s favourite weapon in the red zone.
The tight end leads the Bills in targets inside 20 yards (five) and touchdowns (three).
Even though that’s the case, he has the third-shortest odds to score amongst pass catchers behind Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman.
The Patriots allow the seventh most yards to tight ends (63.0) and gave up two touchdowns to the position last week in their 42-13 blowout over the Panthers.
Buffalo has a lot more offensive potential with Kincaid being a prime target near the end zone. I love the value here.
Patriots vs. Bills picks made at 1:57 p.m. ET 10/03/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.