The second round of the MLB postseason kicks off with a quadruple header on Oct. 4.
The playoff narrative: Saturday’s slate begins with the two No. 1 seeds — the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays — in action. I have plays on both games and expect a comfortable win from the Seattle Mariners to close out the night.
Check out my MLB postseason predictions, featuring a moneyline play, run line pick and Freddy Peralta prop.
MLB postseason predictions
Best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-132)
Here’s why I like Toronto to win Game 1 of the ALDS vs. the New York Yankees:
- Starting pitching advantage.
- Rested bullpen.
- Home dominance.
Toronto is turning to its ace, Kevin Gausman, for Game 1, while the Yankees counter with a backend arm (Will Warren or Luis Gil).
One of those pitchers will have to navigate a versatile Blue Jays lineup that ranked first in MLB in batting average and on-base percentage, and was No. 1 in wRC+ in the second half.
This is the reward the Jays received for securing the AL’s top seed and a bye. They get to line up their rotation, while New York is unable to turn its rotation back over to the top until Game 2 after playing in the wild-card round.
Toronto’s bullpen has been a rollercoaster, but it was pretty sharp in September after getting manhandled coming out of the all-star break.
More importantly, the group has enjoyed a breather.
New York got a lot of innings out of its starters in the wild-card series, but it used closer David Bednar in three straight games, and Fernando Cruz and Devin Williams twice apiece.
Let’s not discount that Game 1 is in Toronto, either.
- The Blue Jays enjoyed home cooking, going an AL-best 54-27 at Rogers Centre.
- Toronto went 8-5 against New York (6-1 at home), and Gausman was dynamite in his final two starts against the Bronx Bombers.
With the way the starting pitching matchups are likely to shake out, this will be the most winnable game of the series for Toronto.
Key stat: Gausman allowed one run in each of his final two starts vs. New York. He went seven-plus innings in both outings, striking out 13 and walking three.
MLB playoff best bets
Mariners -1.5 (+112): At the time of writing, the Game 1 starters are unknown.
But the best guess is Logan Gilbert for the Mariners and a bullpen game for the Detroit Tigers. Tarik Skubal will almost certainly be held until Sunday’s Game 2 after pitching Tuesday.
Gilbert is a difference-maker who should have his way with this scuffling lineup before turning it over to Seattle’s bullpen. That group ranked top 10 in ERA and K% in the second half.
- The righty allowed two runs or fewer in five straight starts to close the season (2.30 ERA in September).
- Gilbert had the third-best K rate in MLB (minimum 100 innings) and put up a 2.24 ERA at home.
The Tigers had scored five runs through their three wild-card games before adding four in the seventh inning of their Game 3 win.
Detroit hit .218 and got on base at a .287 clip in the wild-card round and will have to bust out this weekend at one of MLB’s most pitcher-friendly venues, T-Mobile Park.
Behind MLB home run leader Cal Raliegh, Seattle had the second-best offence in baseball (per wRC+), and was 16% better than the Tigers in the second half.
- Detroit: .431 win% post-ASG.
- Seattle: .591 win% post-ASG.
MLB pitching prop pick
Peralta over 14.5 outs (-152): Peralta was one of the best pitchers in the majors this season. He has had ample time to rest and plan for his first assignment of the postseason.
The right-hander cleared this line in 30 of 33 starts.
One miss was the last day of the season, a meaningless game for Milwaukee. It used it as a tune-up for several pitchers, deploying seven arms in a 4-2 win.
Though one of the others came against the Chicago Cubs, I’m not swayed by that late July outcome.
- Peralta posted a career-best 2.70 ERA.
- He was dominant at home: 1.77 ERA/17 starts.
- Top 10 in K% and hard-hit rate.
Peralta can dominate any lineup, but betting on him to get 15-plus outs doesn’t even ask for that.
The Brewers have a rested staff thanks to their first-round bye and an off day before Game 2 on Monday, so I’d expect them to be aggressive with their bullpen if needed.
But this is such a light line for a No. 1 starter in a non-elimination game that I’m comfortable dipping into the -150 territory to play it.
MLB postseason predictions made at 1:55 p.m. ET on 10/04/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.