The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces meet in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals.
The latest: The Aces are led by four-time MVP A’ja Wilson, looking for their third title in four years. The Mercury haven’t been to the dance since 2021, but just knocked off the No. 1 seed and have loads of talent, highlighted by Alyssa Thomas
Check out my best Mercury vs. Aces predictions, featuring prop bets on Thomas and Chelsea Gray for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals on Oct. 3.
Mercury vs. Aces predictions
Best bet: Gray over 16.5 points/assists (-127)
Gray is an integral part of the Aces’ offence. She plays 34.8 minutes a night and is showcasing strong playmaking skills.
She’s averaging 10.9 points and 7.3 assists in the playoffs and is 5-3 against this line.
The assists will be there on most nights, but it’s her scoring that can be inconsistent. One positive is that she takes 3.1 three-point attempts per game, which accounts for almost half her shots.
It also helps that Gray shoots 48.0% from three. If she gets hot, she will quickly add up points.
Either way, she should have quite a few quality looks with how much she plays. The Mercury will also surely be game-planning around stopping Wilson, and that’ll force the second and third options in the Vegas offence to step up.
Key stat: Gray averaged 14.3 points and 5.5 assists in four games vs. Phoenix in the regular season.
WNBA prop picks
Thomas under 18.5 rebounds/assists (-106): Even though Thomas is a triple-double threat on a nightly basis, this line falls just below her season average (18.0 rebounds/assists).
That number has dropped in the postseason (17.5), and this is a tough matchup.
- Thomas went 1-3 against this wager against Las Vegas in the regular season, averaging 16.5 RA.
- She was incredible in the semifinals, but still went 1-3 against this line despite having 8+ rebounds and 7+ assists in every game.
That tells me that her floor is really high, but not this high.
Overall, Thomas has finished short of this total in five of seven postseason games.
Mercury vs. Aces predictions made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 10/03/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.