It’s the final day of MLB’s wild-card round, and we’ve got three do-or-die games on tap.
The pregame narrative: I’ve got plays from all three matchups, starting with a prop bet on Cleveland’s Brayan Rocchio. Later on, Yu Darvish looks to build on his strong career numbers against the Chicago Cubs, which should help keep the game total low.
Check out my MLB wild-card best bets for Game 3 action on Oct. 2, including a prop bet on Boston’s Connelly Early.
MLB wild-card best bets
Best bet: Darvish over 3.5 Ks (-112)
This is a classic postseason baseball prop line, sitting comfortably below what Darvish would be seeing during the regular season.
Truncated workloads are always a risk for starters in the playoffs, and a quick hook could be in play here. But if Darvish is pitching well, I think he can stick around long enough to cash this bet.
The veteran right-hander began the year on the injured list and proceeded to post career-worst marks in ERA (5.38) and K/9 (8.5).
In fairness, a lot of that damage came in his first handful of post-IL outings. Over his final 11 starts, Darvish had a 4.23 ERA and a 9.3 K/9.
He also has great numbers against the Cubs’ active lineup:
- 102 plate appearances
- 26 Ks (25.5 K%)
- .194 opponent BA
- .280 SLG
Darvish has gone over this number in 10 of his past 11 starts, and he had nine Ks in 8.0 innings vs. the Cubs last season. If he can at least get into the fourth inning, he’ll have a chance.
Key stat: The Cubs have struck out 24 times in just 62 postseason plate appearances so far, equating to the highest K rate of the playoffs (38.7%).
More wild-card predictions
Early over 3.5 Ks (-110): The same workload-related caution with Darvish applies to Early, too. And I’d expect the leash to be even shorter for a guy who’s making just his fifth MLB start.
But Early is downright nasty, and the Yankees haven’t faced him yet. They aren’t going to like what they see.
The 6-foot-3 left-hander sits at 94 mph and has a myriad of other pitches to go with it.
MLB’s average whiff rate is 25.3%, according to Baseball Savant, and five of Early’s six pitches are above that.
Through 19.1 IP as a big-leaguer, Early has 29 Ks and is 4-0 vs. this prop.
The Yankees had the sixth-highest K rate in the majors during the regular season (23.5%).
Padres/Cubs under 7.5 runs (-110): San Diego and Chicago combined for just seven total runs in Games 1 and 2 of this series, and I think we’re in for another rock fight in the deciding matchup.
- Darvish, as mentioned, has held the Cubs’ lineup to a sub-.200 BA and a sub-.300 SLG in 102 plate appearances.
- On the other side, Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has finished the season on fire. He had a 1.57 ERA from August onward, and this under went 5-1 in those games.
If Darvish falters, the Padres’ league-best bullpen is there to back him up. Following the all-star break, San Diego’s relief corps had a league-best 2.87 ERA and 81.3% strand rate.
In the five Padres/Cubs matchups played at Wrigley Field this year, the average total is 6.8 runs.
Rocchio over 0.5 hits (-150): Rocchio was the Game 2 hero for the Guardians yesterday, clubbing a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning to force a rubber match.
The 24-year-old is a light-hitting shortstop who occasionally runs into one. I like his chances to scratch across another base knock today.
- Rocchio is 3-for-9 with a double and a walk against Tigers starter Jack Flaherty.
- Rocchio is a switch-hitter who has fared better from the left side this season (.236 BA, compared to a .224 BA from the right side). He’s also been better at home (.250) than on the road (.217).
- Dating back to last year, Rocchio now has 1+ hits in 9 of 12 postseason starts.
MLB wild-card best bets made at 12:17 p.m. ET on 10/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.