Our staff’s Week 5 best bets feature a pair of ATS predictions, one moneyline pick and a prop bet.
The Week 5 narrative: Things are not looking good in Cincinnati, and now the Bengals face a Detroit Lions team firing on all cylinders. Also, Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants hit the road as enticing underdogs in New Orleans.
Check out our NFL Week 5 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring a prediction on New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields.
NFL Week 5 best bets
These NFL Week 5 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Jordan Horrobin.
ATS picks
Lions -10.5 (-106): Cincinnati has utterly imploded since losing Joe Burrow to injury, and I can’t imagine things getting better against a red-hot Detroit team that plays whistle-to-whistle.
The Bengals have been outscored 76-13 over their last two games. Now, they face a squad averaging 41.3 PPG during a three-game winning streak.
Just take a look at what each team’s offence has done in Weeks 3 and 4:
- Cincinnati: 13 points, 330 total yards
- Detroit: 72 points, 703 total yards
The Lions will put up a boatload of points — that’s a given. I just can’t see Cincinnati finding the end zone enough to make this match competitive.
Buccaneers +3.5 (-112): Styles make fights, and I think this matchup bodes well for Tampa Bay.
- The Seahawks have the second-highest rush play percentage in the NFL (53.02%).
- The Buccaneers have held opponents to the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (85.0) at the second-lowest yards per carry (3.3).
- Tampa’s defence also ranks first in EPA per rush and second in rush success rate. It has held 12 straight opponents under 100 rushing yards.
I have to put some respect on Sam Darnold’s name for a hot start, but he’s beaten up on a trio of underhwhelming defences (Steelers, Saints, Cardinals).
Things won’t come as easily against Tampa, and I trust Baker Mayfield to keep his offence (which admittedly has some injury problems) cooking.
Dart, Giants have value as underdogs
Giants moneyline (+110): Dart didn’t have the prettiest day as a passer in his NFL debut, but he mixed in 54 yards and a TD on the ground to help fuel an upset win over the Chargers.
The New Orleans Saints’ defence ranks 29th in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com, so they should be easier for Dart to operate against.
And the Cam Skattebo/Dart combo in the running game has flashed plenty of promise.
New Orleans is 0-4 and ranks in the bottom five in scoring on both sides of the ball. Having home-field advantage is nice, but the Saints don’t deserve to be favoured.
The Giants’ loaded defensive line should make Spencer Rattler uncomfortable in this matchup. New York ranks fourth in QB knockdown rate (12.5%), per Sports Reference.
NFL Week 5 best bets: Player props
Fields over 1.5 passing TDs (+190): This is oozing with value. Though Fields isn’t known as a pocket passer, New York should be forced into an aerial attack against the Dallas Cowboys.
- Dallas owns a top-five scoring offence and a bottom-five scoring defence.
- After trading Micah Parsons, the Cowboys’ defence ranks 27th in pass rush win rate and fourth in run stop win rate.
- Dallas has allowed 10 passing touchdowns in its last three games, with each quarterback (Russell Wilson, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love) comfortably clearing this number.
Fields should be asked to throw the ball plenty in a matchup with serious shootout potential.
NFL Week 5 best bets made at 12:09 p.m. ET on 10/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.