The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees square off in a win-or-go-home matchup on Thursday night to advance to the ALDS.
The pregame narrative: A pair of promising rookie pitchers, Connelly Early and Cam Schlittler, take the mound in their clubs’ biggest game of the season. The Yankees have never faced Early, but there are some menacing sluggers in their lineup who thrive against left-handed pitching.
Check out my +310 Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions for Game 3, featuring prop bets on Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Cedanne Rafaela.
Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions
Parlay: Judge over 1.5 bases | Bellinger 1+ hits | Rafaela under 1.5 bases (+310)
Judge over 1.5 total bases (-106): Judge is the best hitter on the planet overall, and he’s the best hitter against left-handed pitching, too.
- During the regular season, Judge posted a .341/.491/.789 slash line vs. LHPs.
- His OPS (1.280), wRC+ (225) and ISO (.447) vs. LHPs all led the majors.
Judge is 4-for-8 so far in this series, cashing this bet in both games. He’s now 81-73 against this prop on the season as a whole.
Early has been nasty so far, posting a 2.33 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. But Judge mashes southpaws, and this price is more than fair to back the AL MVP-in-waiting.
MLB SGP legs
Bellinger 1+ hits (-210): Judge isn’t the only Yankee who excels against LHPs. Bellinger finished third in the regular season in wRC+ against southpaws (180) with a .353 batting average.
Typically, lefty-on-lefty matchups put hitters at a disadvantage. But Bellinger is an exception to the rule.
Early throws a combination of sinkers, sweepers and four-seamers roughly two-thirds of the time when facing left-handed batters.
Bellinger has a .385/.443/.644 slash line against those pitches from LHPs this season.
In his past 34 games, Bellinger has cashed this bet 26 times (76.5%).
Rafaela under 1.5 total bases (-250): Given that Schlittler throws gas, I wanted to fade a Red Sox hitter who struggles to handle the heat.
Rafaela is that guy, as he’s just 5-for-33 (.152) with zero extra-base hits this season against pitches that are 97 mph or above, per Baseball Savant.
Schlittler’s four-seamer and sinker both sit north of 97 mph. On the four-seamer in particular, opponents are batting .176 with a .279 SLG.
Rafaela is hitless in this series (0-for-6). This under is now 18-5 in his past 23 starts.
Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions as of 12:26 p.m. on 10/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.