The NFL calendar has flipped to October, meaning we’ll have four teams on bye this week.
The Week 5 narrative: Chicago, Atlanta, Green Bay and Pittsburgh are resting up, but there are still some good matchups. Ten of the 14 games on tap are projected to finish within a touchdown, including a battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks, where our staff is leaning heavily toward the road side.
Check out our staff’s Week 5 NFL ATS picks for predictions on every game.
NFL ATS picks: Week 5
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Chris Toman and Steven Psihogios offer up their Week 4 NFL ATS picks for all 16 games.
NFL odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025.
Thursday Night Football pick
49ers vs. Rams (Thursday, Oct. 2: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Rams -8.5
Horrobin says: Los Angeles opened as a 3-point favourite, but injuries to Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings shifted the line drastically. I think the pendulum has swung too far, and I’ll back a San Francisco squad that ranks in the top seven in scoring and total defence. Dating back to 2019, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers have covered this number in 13 straight games against the Rams.
Staff picks: Perri (SF) | Horrobin (SF) | Closs (LAR) | Toman (LAR) | Psihogios (LAR)
Sunday morning NFL London pick
Vikings vs. Browns (Sunday, Oct. 5: 9:30 a.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Vikings -3.5
Closs says: In last week’s international game, Minnesota lost by three to Pittsburgh and allowed backup RB Kenneth Gainwell to post a career high 99 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns will start rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, but should run their offence through Quinshon Judkins. The first-round pick leads first-year rushers in yards per game (79.0). He looks like a future bell cow on offence, and should carve up the Vikings’ defence.
Staff picks: Perri (MIN) | Horrobin (CLE) | Closs (CLE) | Toman (MIN) | Psihogios (MIN)
NFL ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Cowboys vs. Jets (Sunday, Oct. 5: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Cowboys -2.5
Perri says: Dallas fought tooth and nail to earn a tie as a touchdown underdog against the Packers in Week 4, and I think its offence should explode in the Meadowlands. New York is 0-4, losing by an average of 7.5 points so far. Its defence is among the worst in football, ceding the fourth-most points while ranking 28th in EPA per play.
Staff picks: Perri (DAL) | Horrobin (DAL) | Closs (DAL) | Toman (DAL) | Psihogios (DAL)
Broncos vs. Eagles (Sunday, Oct. 5: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Eagles -4
Toman says: Denver hasn’t done enough for me against a much softer schedule than what Philadelphia has seen. The Eagles matchups have been anything but soft — Cowboys, Rams, Chiefs, Bucs — and they’ve come away undefeated, winning by four-plus points three times. While the Broncos’ defence has been strong, they’ve been able to prop up those numbers against two doormats (Titans, Browns). Now they get a 4-0 Eagles team averaging 27.0 points per game, seventh in the NFL.
Staff picks: Perri (DEN) | Horrobin (DEN) | Closs (PHI) | Toman (PHI) | Psihogios (PHI)
Texans vs. Ravens (Sunday, Oct. 5: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Texans -1
Horrobin says: The Texans beat up on a terrible Tennessee squad at home, but they’ve scored just 19 points across two road games so far. Sure, Baltimore is 1-3, but its gauntlet schedule included matchups against the Bills (road), Lions and Chiefs (road). Lamar Jackson’s absence is an obvious concern, but Cooper Rush started eight NFL games last year … and the Ravens still have Derrick Henry.
Staff picks: Perri (BAL) | Horrobin (BAL) | Closs (BAL) | Toman (BAL) | Psihogios (HOU)
Raiders vs. Colts (Sunday, Oct. 5: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Colts -6.5
Horrobin says: One touchdown-sized blunder from Adonai Mitchell was the difference between the Colts and the Rams last week, and I don’t think that affects Indy’s ability to beat up on lesser opponents at home. Las Vegas is a lesser opponent, entering on a three-game losing streak (SU and ATS). Ashton Jeanty looked great last week, but he’s still not on Jonathan Taylor’s level.
Staff picks: Perri (IND) | Horrobin (IND) | Closs (IND) | Toman (LV) | Psihogios (LV)
Dolphins vs. Panthers (Sunday, Oct. 5: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Dolphins -1
Toman says: Miami finally got a win, but at the expense of a major loss. Tyreek Hill is done for the year, creating a huge hole for the Dolphins’ passing game, which has been abysmal behind Tua Tagovailoa. Their defence has been shredded, too. Much of the same can be said about the Panthers. But Carolina is home after three of four weeks on the road, giving me confidence in a bounce back after getting dismantled by the Patriots (who beat Miami in Week 2) last Sunday.
Staff picks: Perri (CAR) | Horrobin (MIA) | Closs (CAR) | Toman (CAR) | Psihogios (MIA)
Giants vs. Saints (Sunday, Oct. 5: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Saints -2
Closs says: The Giants are coming off a huge upset over the Chargers in Jaxon Dart’s first start at QB. He provides stability to a defence that has allowed 22 or fewer points in three of four games. The Saints have scored 21 or fewer points in every game so far and concede the third most points per game (30.3). There’s little upside to the offence, and the defence is Swiss cheese. I’ll happily back the Giants as the underdog.
Staff picks: Perri (NYG) | Horrobin (NYG) | Closs (NYG) | Toman (NYG) | Psihogios (NO)
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Oct. 5: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Seahawks -3.5
Closs says: The Buccaneers had a lot go wrong last week against the Eagles. They had a blocked punt returned for a score and were down 24-6 at halftime. Tampa almost came back but fell short in the end, 31-25. They are still 3-1 and 2-0 on the road. Seattle is also 3-1, but I believe its offence is a tier below Tampa Bay’s. I love the underdog value here.
Staff picks: Perri (TB) | Horrobin (TB) | Closs (TB) | Toman (TB) | Psihogios (SEA)
Place your bets on the 4 p.m. NFL slate
Titans vs. Cardinals (Sunday, Oct. 5: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Cardinals -7.5
Horrobin says: The Titans had 175 yards and zero points last week, and now they’re back on the road with a rest disadvantage. Woof. After a pair of divisional losses by a combined four points, the Cardinals should be hungry to author a statement win in the desert. Tennessee is in the bottom five in scoring on both sides of the ball.
Staff picks: Perri (ARI) | Horrobin (ARI) | Closs (TEN) | Toman (ARI) | Psihogios (ARI)
Lions vs. Bengals (Sunday, Oct. 5: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Lions -10.5
Perri says: The Bengals quit on Monday Night Football, and have been outscored 75-13 in Jake Browning’s two starts. Dan Campbell’s group will be frothing at the mouth to play a team this directionless with a rest advantage. Detroit is averaging 41.3 PPG in its last three games and should cruise past the 30-point threshold again.
Staff picks: Perri (DET) | Horrobin (DET) | Closs (DET) | Toman (DET) | Psihogios (DET)
Commanders vs. Chargers (Sunday, Oct. 5: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Chargers -3
Perri says: Los Angeles’ star left tackle Joe Alt is doubtful to play on Sunday, which doesn’t bode well against Washington’s defence. The Commanders rank 13th in pass rush win rate and third in run stop win rate, per ESP.com. Jayden Daniels is back under centre, and I think he can lead Washington to a win as a road underdog.
Staff picks: Perri (WSH) | Horrobin (LAC) | Closs (LAC) | Toman (WSH) | Psihogios (LAC)
Sunday and Monday Night NFL ATS picks
Patriots vs. Bills (Sunday, Oct. 5: 8:20 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Bills -8
Closs says: Drake Maye has been incredible as a sophomore. So far, he has 988 passing yards, seven TDs and two INTs, with a 109.4 passer rating. Stats very similar to MVP favourite Josh Allen’s. Buffalo is 4-0 but 0-2 ATS in the past two games. The Bills had trouble putting away the Dolphins and Cardinals, and the 3-1 Patriots appear to be a much better team to this point. New England is 2-2 against Buffalo over the past two seasons.
Staff picks: Perri (BUF) | Horrobin (NE) | Closs (NE) | Toman (BUF) | Psihogios (BUF)
Chiefs vs. Jaguars (Monday, Oct. 6: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Chiefs -3.5
Perri says: Kansas City is coming off a huge 37-20 win over Baltimore, but I think this matchup bodes well stylistically for Jacksonville. The Jaguars have revitalized their run game, and the Chiefs’ defence has been awful against the run, ranking 28th in yards per attempt (4.9) and 31st in EPA per rush. Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS and should keep this close at home.
Staff picks: Perri (JAX) | Horrobin (KC) | Closs (KC) | Toman (JAX) | Psihogios (JAX)
NFL ATS picks: Week 4 + season records: Toman: 8-8 (32-32) | Perri: 7-9 (27-37) | Horrobin: 6-10 (26-38) | Psihogios: 11-5 (30-34) | Closs: 11-5 (31-33)
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.