In a battle of 3-1 divisional foes, the Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Rams swept the home-and-home series last year and are favoured to win again at home. San Francisco is awaiting word on a laundry list of injuries leading up to the Week 5 kick-off.
Check out my 49ers vs. Rams same-game parlay predictions for Week 5 below, featuring Matthew Stafford and Christian McCaffrey.
49ers vs. Rams SGP predictions
SGP: Stafford 225+ passing yards | Rams -3.5 | McCaffrey 50+ rushing yards (+325)
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Stafford 225+ passing yards (-175): My best bet for Thursday is Puka Nacua over 95.5 receiving yards, and Stafford is obviously a beneficiary of Nacua’s excellence.
With the tandem of Nacua and three-time All-Pro Davante Adams, Stafford has some elite weapons to work with. And all of them feasted at home last week against the previously unbeaten Colts:
- Stafford: 375 yards, 3 TDs, 123.5 rating
- Nacua: 13 catches, 170 yards, 1 TD
- Adams: 4 catches, 56 yards, 1 TD
The Rams have a bell cow tailback in Kyren Williams, so they don’t always need Stafford to put up huge numbers. But Stafford is at his best inside SoFi Stadium, and this is a very manageable yardage milestone for him.
In his past 10 home games, Stafford has averaged 256.7 passing yards with a 70.7% completion rate and a 99.6 rating.
He is 7-3 vs. this line in that span.
San Francisco’s defence ranks 17th in dropback success rate and 16th in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com. Stafford can excel in this matchup.
Thursday Night Football SGP picks
Rams -3.5 (-186): Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall all missed Monday’s practice for the 49ers. That’s not a great sign on a short week.
San Francisco’s injury report is more than twice as long as Los Angeles’ list. And with some key names in question for Thursday’s matchup, I think that puts the Niners at a distinct disadvantage.
On the flip side, the Rams are in a great spot right now. They’re at home for a second consecutive week after a 27-20 win over the Colts on Sunday.
L.A. is 7-3 ATS at home since the start of last season, and the team went 4-0 ATS against San Francisco in the 2023-24 seasons.
McCaffrey 50+ rushing yards (-215): McCaffrey has often struggled to stay healthy in the past, and as a result, he has only faced the Rams twice since joining the 49ers.
He did put up big numbers in both games, though:
- Oct. 30, 2022: 94 rush yards, 2 TDs
- Sept. 17, 2023: 116 rush yards, 1 TD
Against all odds, McCaffrey is the healthiest weapon on San Francisco’s offence right now. The Niners should lean on him Thursday, no matter how their final injury report shakes out.
McCaffrey is 3-1 vs. this yardage milestone, finishing with 49 yards in his lone outlier.
49ers vs. Rams predictions made at 2:34 p.m. on 10/01/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.