The unbeaten Vanderbilt Commodores are involved in one of the marquee college football matchups in Week 6, as they hit the road to face the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The pregame narrative: Vanderbilt shocked the world with an upset win over Alabama last season, but the Commodores are still double-digit underdogs in the rematch. Later on, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are sizeable road favourites against the Houston Cougars in a battle of unbeatens.
Check out the best college football Week 6 picks, featuring an ATS pick for the Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden Bears matchup.
College football picks Week 6
Best bet: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110)
College GameDay is pulling up to Tuscaloosa for No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Alabama this week.
That would’ve seemed preposterous a couple of years ago, but Vandy’s football program has risen to heights rarely seen before. The 16th-ranked Commodores are 5-0 for the first time since 2008.
Vandy has also scored 50+ points in back-to-back games for the first time since 1915.
The program’s turnaround began in earnest against Alabama last season. On Oct. 5, 2024, unranked Vanderbilt was a 23-point home underdog against No. 1 Alabama, but the Commodores came away with a stunning 40-35 win.
Vanderbilt went on to beat Auburn and Kentucky, lose close against Texas, and claim a bowl victory for just the fourth time since the mid-1950s.
With Diego Pavia back under centre for the Commodores, expectations were certainly raised. Pavia leads the SEC in passing TDs (13) and passer rating (184.6) to fuel Vandy’s dominant start.
Alabama did earn a massive road win last week against Georgia, but the Crimson Tide were shut out in the second half. I’m not sold on their ability to pull away on Saturday.
Vanderbilt ranks seventh in NCAA Division I in net EPA per play, according to Game On Paper. Alabama is 19th in that category.
The Commodores already have two outright wins as road underdogs this season, and this is a lot of points to give them.
Key stat: Since the start of last season, Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS (7-5 SU) as an underdog.
More college football best bets
Texas Tech -11.5 (-120): The Red Raiders and Cougars are both 4-0 entering this matchup, but they aren’t considered equals.
- Texas Tech ranks inside the top 20 in success rate on both sides of the ball. Houston is 35th in defensive success rate and 131st in offensive success rate (out of 136 schools).
- Texas Tech is 3-0 ATS vs. Houston since the 2021 season, covering this number in two of those games.
- Houston is unranked, while Texas Tech is the No. 11 team in the country.
Houston’s offence struggles to stay ahead of the sticks, and I expect Texas Tech to capitalize on that weakness.
Through four games, Houston ranks 129th in the country in offensive EPA per play on early downs. On the flip side, Texas Tech’s defence allows the fifth-lowest EPA per play on early downs.
The Red Raiders and Cougars have faced one common opponent, Oregon State, and the results from their respective matchups are telling.
Texas Tech won dominantly, 45-14, while Houston needed overtime for a 27-24 victory.
Cal +3 (-110): Cal got embarrassed a couple of weeks ago, getting shut out as a 14-point favourite on the road against San Diego State. But the Golden Bears responded really well.
Last Saturday, playing as 6.5-point underdogs at Boston College, they stole a 28-24 win in the closing minutes:
Now Cal is back home, where it’ll host a Blue Devils squad that hasn’t yet ventured west of the central time zone. That should work in the Bears’ favour.
Cal is 3-2 ATS this season, which includes a 2-0 ATS mark as an underdog.
Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is the ACC leader in passing yards and TDs, so he’ll be tough to slow down. But Cal’s defence ranks 22nd in EPA per pass, so I’m hoping they’ll be up to the task.
College football picks made at 2:30 p.m. on 09/30/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.