For the second time in as many weeks, it’s an all-NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Puka Nacua has been electric for the Los Angeles Rams through the first month, and he should continue to be a problem with the San Francisco 49ers in town. The Niners, who have a laundry list of injuries, are underdogs for the first time this season.
Check out my 49ers vs. Rams picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5 on Oct. 2, featuring a prop bet on Nacua and an ATS pick.
49ers vs. Rams picks
Best Bet: Nacua over 97.5 receiving yards (-118)
It’s rare to see a receiving yards line this high, but Nacua is a rare talent.
In 2023, Nacua set NFL rookie records in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486). He was even better on a per-game basis last year, but missed six games due to injury.
And now in Year 3, Nacua is raising the bar once again.
- Through four games, Nacua has 42 catches and 503 yards.
- It’s far too early to extrapolate, but that does put him on pace to be the first receiver to crest 2,000 yards.
- Nacua has 8+ catches and 90+ yards in all four games. He’s 3-1 vs. this prop.
The BYU grad missed last year’s home matchup against the 49ers, but he carved them up as a rookie: 15 catches, 147 yards on 20 targets.
Altogether, Nacua is 1-2 vs. this prop when facing the 49ers, but he finished with exactly 97 yards in one of the unders.
San Francisco’s pass defence has been mediocre at best so far. According to RBSDM.com, the Niners’ defence ranks 17th in dropback success rate and 16th in EPA per dropback.
Key stat: Nacua already has six career games with 150+ receiving yards. Only two other wideouts had more through three seasons (Randy Moss, seven; Justin Jefferson, eight).
Thursday Night Football ATS pick
Rams -5.5 (-134): We’re already at a point in the season where injury report discrepancies can make a big difference. Especially on a short week.
The 49ers’ injury report was more than twice the length of the Rams’ list to open the week. Neither Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, nor Ricky Pearsall practiced on Monday to start the week.
Purdy, who missed Weeks 2 and 3 with a toe injury, played the full game in Week 4 (a home loss vs. the Jaguars). But by Sunday night, he said the toe was bothering him again.
Not practicing on the first of three days to open the week isn’t a great sign, obviously.
The Rams are 4-0 ATS against the Niners over the previous two seasons, winning three of those games straight up as underdogs.
L.A. downed the previously unbeaten Indianapolis Colts at home last week. The Rams are now 7-3 ATS at SoFi Stadium since the start of last season.
49ers vs. Rams picks made at 3:10 p.m. ET 09/30/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.