A David-versus-Goliath wild-card matchup begins on Tuesday when the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds for Game 1.
The pregame narrative: L.A. (93-69) finished the season with 10 more wins and a run differential four times greater than Cincinnati. That’s to be expected with a payroll discrepancy of $230 million. The Dodgers are heavily favoured in Game 1 with Blake Snell pitching opposite Hunter Greene.
Check out my +335 Reds vs. Dodgers predictions, featuring slugger Freddie Freeman.
Reds vs. Dodgers predictions
Parlay: Under 9.5 | Freeman over 1.5 bases | Greene over 4.5 Ks (+335)
Under 9.5 runs (-455): Cincinnati eked its way into the postseason mainly because of a generational collapse by the New York Mets.
The Reds did manage to go 14-11 in September, but they posted a .694 team OPS that month, which was the second-worst mark among all playoff teams.
And on the season, Cincinnati ranks 24th in wRC+ (92) and ISO (.146), as well as 23rd in K rate (23.3%).
Simply put, its offence is anemic.
Snell has been on fire since returning from injury in August, posting a 2.09 ERA in his last eight starts. All but one of those games went under this alternate total, and he should cruise again.
Cincinnati has its own ace starting, and he’s been lights out in September.
- 2.64 ERA
- .152 opponent BA
- 11.2 K/9
Eight of Greene’s last 10 starts have gone under this mark. Expect a low-scoring pitchers’ duel.
MLB SGP legs
Greene over 4.5 Ks (-315): Greene’s sparkling 11.2 K/9 rate in September is just the tip of the iceberg.
The righty’s 99.5 mph fastball ranks in the 99th percentile for velocity, and his slider has a 46.9% whiff rate — the ninth-highest mark of any qualified pitch this season, per Baseball Savant.
Greene ranks in the 93rd percentile in K rate (31.4%) and 90th percentile for whiff rate (31.4%), and has gone over this mark in seven of his last nine starts.
One of the outliers was a three-strikeout game against L.A. on Aug. 25, but that doesn’t worry me.
Greene still has a respectable 24.8% K rate against the Dodgers lineup, clearing this mark in both previous starts against them.
Freeman over 1.5 bases (+135): This is the leg that’s doing a ton of heavy lifting, more than quadrupling the parlay’s odds from -195 to +335.
And with Freeman’s postseason pedigree, I think that’s a steal.
The Canadian slugged .519 last October, matching his career playoff mark. Everyone will remember his four World Series home runs en route to winning the MVP.
Freeman slashed .299/.374/.500 against RHPs this year and is 4-for-15 off Greene with two doubles and a home run.
Reds vs. Dodgers predictions as of 10:45 a.m. on 09/30/2025.
Looking to get started? Sign up here.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.