All four MLB wild-card series begin on Tuesday, and I’ve got plays from three of them.
The pregame narrative: As is typically the case when the playoffs begin, the projected run totals for today’s games are quite low. I’ve got the over in one game and the under in another, along with a prop bet on Jose Ramirez.
Check out my MLB wild-card best bets for Game 1 action on Sept. 30, including an over/under prediction for the San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs matchup.
MLB wild-card best bets
Best bet: Reds/Dodgers under 7 runs (-112)
If the Cincinnati Reds are going to have any shot at shocking the Los Angeles Dodgers, Hunter Greene will need to shove.
Based on how he’s fared all season, and especially in September, I like Greene’s chances of quieting the Dodgers’ potent lineup.
- In five starts this month, Greene has a 2.64 ERA, a .152 opponent BA and an 11.2 K/9.
- He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of 19 starts on the season.
- This under has cashed or pushed in 11 of Greene’s 19 starts.
Greene sits at 99 mph with his fastball, and he works off that with a slider that has a 46.9% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s the ninth-highest whiff rate of any qualified pitch this season.
It’s nasty stuff that can keep any lineup guessing.
L.A. guessed right more than I would’ve liked when Greene last pitched in this matchup, as he yielded five runs (three earned) over 5.0 innings in one of his worst starts of the year.
Even so, this total pushed as the Reds were held scoreless in a 7-0 loss.
Cincinnati’s hapless offence is just as key to this wager as Greene’s excellence. The Reds have a .694 OPS as a team this month, which is the second-worst among all playoff clubs — ahead of only the Tigers.
On the season, Cincinnati posted a 92 wRC+ (24th in MLB).
Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA) starts for the Dodgers. He has a 2.09 ERA and an 11.4 K/9 in his past eight outings.
Key stat: Cincinnati’s active lineup is just 5-for-48 (.104) with 12 strikeouts against Snell.
More wild-card predictions
Padres/Cubs over 7 runs (-112): This will be the third time Matthew Boyd and Nick Pivetta square off this season, and I think that familiarity works in the favour of the hitters.
Both lineups already have solid numbers against these pitchers, too.
- Padres vs. Boyd: 19-for-68 (.279), .412 SLG, 17.6 K%
- Cubs vs. Pivetta: 32-for-106 (.302), .491 SLG, 27.4 K%
San Diego and Chicago are both swinging the bats well lately, which certainly doesn’t hurt. They rank seventh and fourth, respectively, in wRC+ over the past 30 days.
Ramirez over 1.5 total bases (+140): Tarik Skubal is a menacing opponent for any hitter, but Ramirez has managed to put together plenty of good at-bats in this matchup.
- The switch-hitting third baseman is 12-for-36 with a triple and three doubles vs. Skubal.
- This will be Ramirez’s third time seeing Skubal in less than two weeks. In the two previous games, he went 2-for-5 with a walk.
Ramirez enters with a .301/.393/.548 slash line over his past 25 games. He’s 13-12 vs. this prop in that span.
At this price, J-Ram has value to stay hot.
MLB wild-card best bets made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 09/30/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.