The most storied rivalry in MLB will be renewed this week, as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in the wild-card round.
The pregame narrative: Boston got the better of New York during the regular season, but the Yankees finished five games ahead in the standings and will host this best-of-three series. Tuesday’s Game 1 is a battle of bona fide aces, with Max Fried and Garrett Crochet on the mound.
Check out my +410 Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions for Game 1, featuring Aaron Judge.
Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions
Parlay: Fried over 5.5 Ks | Crochet over 6.5 Ks | Judge under 1.5 bases | Red Sox +1.5 (+410)
Fried over 5.5 strikeouts (-143): Fried has been exactly the type of frontline pitcher the Yankees wanted to invest in this offseason, and his results against the Red Sox in 2025 are indicative of that:
- June 15: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 9 K
- Aug. 22: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 7 K
- Sept. 13: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 6 K
Fried is 3-0 vs. this prop and has a 1.96 ERA against the Red Sox this season. He’s certainly earned this Game 1 start.
Boston has the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.9%), and it’s even higher against Fried (26.8% in 97 plate appearances).
Fried is 19-13 vs. this prop market overall in 2025, and the Red Sox are a plus matchup for him at this number.
MLB SGP legs
Crochet over 6.5 Ks (-265): Crochet has absolutely carved up the Yankees. There’s no other way to say it.
- The left-hander has racked up 45 Ks in just 114 plate appearances against New York’s active lineup, as well as a 34.4% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. For context, the league-average whiff rate is 25.3%.
- Crochet is 4-0 vs. this Ks total when facing the Yankees this year. He’s averaged 9.8 Ks per outing in that span.
Crochet paced the majors in strikeouts (255) and was the AL leader in K/9 (11.2). He’s at the pinnacle of the sport in strikeout volume and efficiency.
Betting the over on 7.5 Ks at -130 looks solid for a standalone play, but I’ll shave off one strikeout to be a bit safer in the SGP.
Boston’s fireballer went 23-9 vs. a 6.5-strikeout prop this season.
Judge under 1.5 total bases (-152): Aside from a couple of mistakes, Crochet has kept Judge muzzled at the plate.
Judge, the two-time MLB home run king, has homered twice off Crochet. But overall, the slugger is just 3-for-15 with 11 strikeouts and a disastrous 61.8% whiff rate.
Guys like Judge and Shohei Ohtani are dangerous to fade in this market, but when the right matchup comes around, it can be worthwhile.
And though I don’t think there’s a lot of stickiness that ties Judge’s 2024 postseason results to now, I do want to point out that he struggled quite a bit last fall:
- .184 BA
- 31.3 K%
- Under 1.5 bases in 10 of 14 games
Red Sox vs. Yankees run line prediction
Red Sox +1.5 (-205): The Yankees are favoured to win Game 1 and the series, but I think Boston can at least keep this one close.
- The Red Sox are 9-4 with a +15 run differential against the Yankees this season.
- With Crochet on the mound, Boston went 4-0 vs. New York. Also, the Red Sox are 7-0 in Crochet’s past seven starts.
Against a +1.5 run line, the Red Sox are 28-4 with Crochet on the mound this season. That’s preposterously good.
New York has home-field advantage, but I view Boston’s visitor status as a plus for this pick. The Red Sox are guaranteed to bat nine times, so maybe they can scratch something across in the ninth if they’re down by multiple runs.
Boston is 40-22 ATS (64.5%) as an underdog this year, according to Team Rankings.
Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions as of 1:36 p.m. on 09/29/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.