I’m looking for a favourite and an underdog to come through in my Japan Open predictions.
The latest: After teaming up on Team Europe at the Laver Cup, Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud now square off. The latter is a sizeable underdog, which makes him a compelling pick. Taylor Fritz is poised to cruise past Jenson Brooksby as he continues to play some of the best tennis of his career.
Check out my top Japan Open semifinal predictions.
Japan Open predictions: semifinal
Best Bet: Fritz -1.5 sets (-134)
Fritz is playing some of the best tennis of his career.
The American is a dominant 32-11 on hardcourts this year and is looking sharp ahead of this contest.
Fritz has won five consecutive matches, including victories over Alcaraz at the Laver Cup and Alexander Zverev at the US Open.
Looking even further back, he’s won 27 of his last 33 matches.
Brooksby, meanwhile, doesn’t boast a strong record on this surface. He actually owns a losing record on the hardcourts in 2025 (9-10).
There wasn’t much hype surrounding Brooksby ahead of the Japan Open. He had lost six of his last 10 matches before the Japan Open.
Ultimately, very few competitors can keep up with Fritz when he’s serving as well as he is. He has 42 aces to just eight double faults through three outings at this tournament.
Bet on Fritz to earn a convincing win.
Key stat: Fritz and Brooksby met once on hardcourts this past year, with the former beating the latter in straight sets (6-2, 6-0, 6-3) at the Australian Open.
Japan Open best bet: Alcaraz vs. Ruud
Ruud +4.5 (-104): Alcaraz is a convincing -1,000 favourite, and deservedly so.
He’s an otherworldly 32-5 on the hardcourts this year and has won 17 of his last 18 matches.
But this seems like a big line against a player in Ruud who’s very capable.
The Norwegian is riding a four-match winning streak, and he’s been very efficient with his serve. Ruud has fired off 22 aces to just three double faults.
Avoiding self-inflicted wounds is the first step to competing against Alcaraz, and Ruud seems ready to do that.
Ruud does have some head-to-head success against Alcaraz as well. He won their last meeting, a straight-sets victory at the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals.
Tennis predictions made at 11:21 a.m. on 09/28/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.