In the second half of this week’s Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Denver Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals.
The pregame narrative: Denver is a 7.5-point favourite against a Cincinnati squad that looked lost on the road last week. J.K. Dobbins has scored in every game so far with his new team and should be a factor in the running game again.
Check out my Bengals vs. Broncos picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Sept. 29.
Bengals vs. Broncos picks
Best Bet: Dobbins over 59.5 rushing yards (-118)
There’s a clear-cut RB1 in Denver, and it’s not R.J. Harvey.
After the Broncos selected Harvey in the second round of the 2025 draft, many thought he could ascend to the top of the depth chart.
And maybe Harvey’s time will come, but for now, Dobbins has a stronghold on the primary role in Denver’s backfield.
- Dobbins has out-touched Harvey, 45-18. In the running game, Dobbins has had at least nine more carries than Harvey in every matchup.
- Dobbins has had a 55% snap share, while Harvey’s snap share is just 30%.
It’s been a frustrating, injury-riddled career so far for Dobbins, but he finally put together a mostly healthy season in 2024. Over 13 games with the Chargers, he rushed for 905 yards and nine TDs.
Through three games with the Broncos, Dobbins is on a full-season pace of 1,258 rushing yards. He has also scored in each game.
Over the past two weeks, the Bengals have coughed up 5.3 yards per rush to the Jaguars and Vikings. Both of their starting running backs cashed this bet.
Dobbins is coming off his best game with Denver (11 carries, 83 yards, one TD) and should exceed this fairly modest line.
Key stat: Since the start of last season, Dobbins has averaged 70.4 rushing yards/game.
Other Monday Night Football picks
Broncos -7.5 (-106): I expect Denver’s pressure-packed defence to torment Jake Browning at home in prime time.
The Broncos have the highest pressure rate in the NFL (39.2%), according to Sports Reference. They’re tied for the NFL lead with 12 sacks.
Browning was consistently flustered last week in a 48-10 road loss against the Vikings. They sacked him three times and forced two interceptions.
Obviously, Cincinnati is a much different team without Joe Burrow under centre. Denver covered this number in its first home game of the season, and I expect that to happen again.
Bengals vs. Broncos picks made at 3:09 p.m. ET 09/27/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.