The NFL couldn’t script a better Sunday Night Football matchup than this showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers.
The pregame narrative: This was slated long before Micah Parsons joined the Packers from Dallas in a blockbuster preseason trade. But now, the All-Pro defensive end is looking for revenge against his old team. Green Bay is a touchdown favourite in this matchup and aims to move to 3-1.
Check out my +370 Packers vs. Cowboys same-game parlay predictions for Week 4 below, featuring Josh Jacobs, Javonte Williams and Jake Ferguson.
Packers vs. Cowboys SGP predictions
SGP: Packers ML | Jacobs to score | Williams 40+ rushing yards | Ferguson 40+ receiving yards (+370)
Packers moneyline (-335): I was debating backing the Cowboys at +14.5, but realized this would yield an even greater payout, with, in my mind, less risk.
Green Bay picked up a pair of dominant wins over the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders to begin the season before suffering a fluke loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3.
That sunk my survivor pool, but I won’t let personal bias cloud my judgment.
The Packers’ defence ranks first in scoring, third in total yards and third in EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com. That’s the Parsons effect.
Dallas, meanwhile, has looked rudderless without its star pass-rusher, ranking 27th, 29th and 31st in the aforementioned categories.
I can’t see the Cowboys pulling off an upset, especially without star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.
Sunday Night Football SGP picks
Jacobs to score (-215): Jacobs’ -215 odds to find the end zone tell you everything about his talent and Dallas’ incompetence.
The bruising running back has two TDs so far after putting up 16 in his debut season with the Packers last year.
Matt LaFleur loves to hammer Jacobs at the goal line. His 48 carries inside the 10-yard line since the start of last season are 10 more than the next closest player (Kyren Williams).
Dallas’ four rushing TDs allowed so far are the fourth-most in the NFL.
Top Cowboys SGP props
Williams 40+ rushing yards (-220): I don’t expect Dallas to completely abandon the run game even if it’s behind.
Williams has logged at least 10 carries in every game so far, going 3-0 against this milestone while averaging 75.6 yards per game.
His 69% snap share tells me he’ll be on the field plenty.
The Packers just let rookie Quinshon Judkins rush for 94 yards, and I’m hopeful Williams will get enough looks to reach less than half of that mark.
Ferguson 40+ receiving yards (-230): Finally, I’m looking for Ferguson to step up in Lamb’s absence.
The fourth-year tight end has received sky-high usage over the last two games:
- Week 2 vs. NYG: 9 catches, 12 targets, 78 yards
- Week 3 vs. CHI: 13 catches, 14 targets, 82 yards
He was targeted on 48.3% of routes run last week, and 32.7% on the season. For context, Ja’Maar Chase was targeted on 23.6% of routes run last season.
Dak Prescott should be looking Ferguson’s way early and often on Sunday.
Packers vs. Cowboys predictions made at 2:05 p.m. on 09/27/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.