Jaxson Dart will make his first NFL start on Sunday afternoon with an opportunity to flash the athleticism that helped make him a first-round NFL draftee.
The pregame narrative: Dart’s rushing yards prop is one of three markets I’m tapping into for Week 4 action. I also expect Patrick Mahomes to clear a passing yards total that he has consistently crested in his career against the Baltimore Ravens.
Check out my top Week 4 NFL prop bets, featuring New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson.
NFL prop bets: Week 4
Best bet: Mahomes over 238.5 passing yards (-118)
Knowing the talent Mahomes possesses, he’s often one of the most frustrating NFL players to watch.
We rarely see the three-time Super Bowl MVP truly unleashed these days. Is that a result of conservative play-calling? Personnel shortcomings? Something else?
I’m not here to fully dissect the issue, but I will say that Mahomes is on track to get one of his best weapons back on Sunday. So that should help.
Xavier Worthy logged a full practice to start the week, which is a great indication that he’ll return.
The speedy second-year wideout, who had five or more catches in each of his final eight games last season, was injured just three snaps into the Chiefs’ season opener.
After throwing for 258 yards in Week 1, Mahomes finished below this yardage prop in both games without Worthy.
KC still isn’t at full strength without Rashee Rice, but getting Worthy back is a step in the right direction.
Baltimore’s defence ranks 21st in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com. Last year, Mahomes completed 20 of 28 passes against the Ravens for 291 yards.
Key stat: Mahomes is the NFL record holder in passing yards per game (287.1). Even in his career-worst season last year, Mahomes averaged 242.5 yards and went 12-7 vs. this prop.
Best NFL picks
Johnson over 4.5 receptions (-134): Against opposing tight ends, Buffalo has allowed NFL lows in receiving yards (32) and receptions (five).
Johnson, meanwhile, has at least five catches and 45 yards in all three of New Orleans’ games.
One of these sides will have to break its trend. Why am I riding with Johnson?
- Johnson has been central to the Saints’ offensive plans. He ranks first among NFL tight ends in routes run (103) and second in targets (29). He’s also in the 97th percentile of all pass-catchers in team target share (24.1%), per RotoWire.
- The game script should be on Johnson’s side. Buffalo is a 15.5-point favourite on Sunday, which means the Saints should need to air it out in an attempt to keep up. If the Bills play prevent defence, underneath looks to Johnson can help this bet cash.
Entering 2025, Johnson had never previously averaged north of 3.0 receptions per game. This might not last forever, but he’s balling out and deserves a high volume of looks.
Dart over 34.5 rushing yards (-118): We’re flying a bit blind on this one, given that Dart has never started at the NFL level.
But the 2025 first-rounder had a couple of designed runs in the past two weeks, which suggests to me that the Giants are comfortable letting him use his legs.
Maybe this number seems a bit high for an NFL rookie with no proven track record, but Dart’s final collegiate season paints a different picture.
- The Ole Miss graduate averaged 37.9 rushing yards last year, even with sack yards counting against his total.
- He cashed this bet in 8 of his final 11 games while averaging 10.2 attempts.
Dart doesn’t have blistering speed like Lamar Jackson, but he moves well and should rely on his mobility when he starts to feel pressure on Sunday.
NFL prop bets made at 4:07 p.m. ET on 09/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.