The last full slate of NFL football until late November pulls no punches.
Week 4 at a glance: The wall-to-wall action begins when the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings battle in Dublin. Then, fans are treated to a heavyweight matchup between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium before Micah Parsons returns to Dallas on Sunday Night Football.
Check out our Week 4 NFL betting guide for staff picks and predictions on the loaded 16-game slate, which features a Monday Night Football doubleheader.
NFL betting guide
Key storylines:
- Jerry Jones made headlines when he traded all-pro defensive end Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers ahead of the season. Now Parsons is set to return to AT&T Stadium to take on his old team in primetime. The Packers own the league’s best scoring defence and are touchdown favourites.
- One of the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs will be at 1-3 after Sunday’s matchup. That adds another layer to this epic battle between Mahomes and Jackson. Kansas City is 4-1 in head-to-head matchups where both QBs are playing.
- It’s Jaxson Dart time in the Meadowlands. The New York Giants are turning to their first-round pick after an 0-3 start, benching Russell Wilson in favour of the rookie. New York is a 6.5-point home underdog as of Thursday morning.
- Pittsburgh and Minnesota kick off the NFL’s European International Series at 9:30 a.m. ET in Dublin. Both squads are 2-1, and the Vikings are coming off a 48-10 win behind backup QB Carson Wentz.
- Only six teams remain undefeated so far… one of them is the Daniel Jones-led Indianapolis Colts. Jones ranks third in passing yards (835) and first in QBR (85.8). The Colts are the first team to punt only once in the first three games of an NFL season since at least 1940.
- There were some big-name injuries in Week 3. San Francisco’s standout defensive end Nick Bosa is out for the season, as are running backs James Conner and Najee Harris.
NFL betting hub
NFL Week 4 betting notes
- Mahomes is 11-5 straight up and 12-3-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career. He has only been a home underdog twice, though, and lost both games outright (including Week 2 vs. the Philadelphia Eagles this year).
- The Tennessee Titans are on a truly miserable ATS run, going 3-17 in their last 20 games. First overall pick Cam Ward hasn’t stopped the bleeding and is 1-2 ATS as a starter.
- The Detroit Lions are 19-5 ATS after a seven-plus point win under head coach Dan Campbell. In that same span, the Lions are 15-10 ATS as a home favourite, winning those games by an average of 11.3 points.
- Bryce Young is 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS on the road as a starter. As a coach, Mike Vrabel of the New England Patriots has a 28-11 SU record against teams under .500.
- Zac Taylor is now 8-23 SU without Joe Burrow since joining the Cincinnati Bengals in 2019. The Bengals have averaged fewer than 20 points in the 15 games Burrow has missed with an injury and lost by 38 last week.
Biggest spreads: Bills (-16.5) vs. Saints; Browns vs. Lions (-10); Packers (-7) vs. Cowboys
Highest totals: Colts vs. Rams (49.5); Ravens vs. Chiefs (48.5); Saints vs. Bills (47.5)
NFL betting guide: Week 4 predictions
ATS picks: Get ATS predictions for the entire slate, headlined by Lions vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football.
Best bets: An ATS wager, a moneyline pick, and two player props (featuring Caleb Williams, Saquon Barkley) make up this week’s staff best bets.
Prop bets: Check out Jordan Horrobin’s best prop picks for Week 4, including Patrick Mahomes and rookie QB Jaxon Dart in his first NFL start.
TD picks: Did you know Bhayshul Tuten had the Jaguars’ only carry inside the five-yard line last week. Horrobin sees Tuten as a value play to score for a third consecutive week as he carves out a steady role in Jacksonville’s offence.
Week 4 upset picks: The undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won nine of their last 11 games while averaging 28.6 PPG. Avery Perri is all over backing them as a home underdog against the Eagles.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Week 4 SGP: As difficult as it is to believe, either the Ravens or Chiefs will start the year 1-3. Spencer Closs has a moneyline prediction as part of this +360 parlay.
Packers vs. Cowboys SNF picks: Green Bay only scored 10 points last week in a shocking loss in Cleveland. Is this a get-right spot for the Packers against a struggling Dallas defence?
Packers vs. Cowboys SNF SGP: Plenty of attention will be paid to Micah Parsons in his return to Big D, but Perri is highlighting three other players in his +370 parlay — including Javonte Williams and Josh Jacobs.
Packers vs. Cowboys SNF TD picks: Green Bay and Dallas meet in primetime. Who’s going to find pay dirt? Steven Psihogios is betting on a running back and a tight end to score.
Jets vs. Dolphins Week 4 MNF picks: This is a homecoming for Jets tight end Mason Taylor, a Miami native whose father (Jason) spent most of his Hall of Fame career with the Dolphins. Horrobin is backing the rookie TE on a modest receiving prop at plus money.
Jets vs. Dolphins Week 4 MNF SGP: Two AFC East rivals are desperate for their first win. Psihogios is expecting standout performances from Jaylen Waddle and Braelon Allen in a +325 SGP.
Bengals vs. Broncos Week 4 MNF picks: J.K. Dobbins has scored in all three games since joining the Broncos and is looking like the obvious RB1 with his new squad. Denver is a hefty home favourite with Jake Browning and the Bengals in town.
We’ll release more NFL predictions throughout the week. Here’s what you can expect for Week 4.
Sept. 28
Jets vs. Dolphins Week 4 MNF SGP
Bengals vs. Broncos Week 4 MNF SGP
Packers vs. Cowboys Week 4 SNF TD picks
NFL Week 4 matchups
Thursday Night Football (Sept. 25)
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET)
International Series game in Dublin (Sept. 28)
- Vikings vs. Steelers (9:30 a.m. ET)
Sunday, Sept. 29: 1 p.m. ET slate
- Panthers vs. Patriots | Browns vs. Lions | Chargers vs. Giants
- Saints vs. Bills | Eagles vs. Buccaneers
- Titans vs. Texans | Commanders vs. Falcons
Sunday, Sept. 21: 4 p.m. ET slate
- Colts vs. Rams | Jaguars vs. 49ers
- Ravens vs. Chiefs | Bears vs. Raiders
Sunday Night Football
- Packers vs. Cowboys (8:20 p.m. ET)
Monday Night Football doubleheader (Sept. 29)
- Jets vs. Dolphins (7:15 p.m. ET)
- Bengals vs. Broncos (8:15 p.m. ET)
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.