Top slugger Juan Soto highlights Wednesday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Soto isn’t having the season most expected, but he’s still been elite, especially recently, and can hit for power. Before that, I’m making a bold prediction on Gunnar Henderson breaking his home run drought.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 24.
MLB home run picks
Best Bet: Soto to hit a home run (+460)
There is a significant amount of value in backing Soto here for several reasons.
- Despite batting a below-standard .267 this season, Soto still ranks seventh in MLB with 42 home runs.
- Plus, he’s seen an uptick in production lately, hitting 10 home runs in his last 23 games.
- That equates to an incredible 1.248 OPS during that time (.782 SLG).
All of that goes before mentioning the tough skid Chicago Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has been on.
He owns a 5.77 ERA over his past eight starts, allowing seven home runs in the process.
Soto is 1-for-7 in his career off Boyd, but the good news is that one hit left the park for a home run.
Key stat: The New York Mets slugger has a 99th-percentile xSLG (.629), per Baseball Savant.
Best HR predictions
Henderson to hit a home run (+450): Let’s get the ugly out of the way first.
Henderson hasn’t hit a home run in 26 straight games. But there’s solid reason to believe he snaps the skid tonight.
- The slugging shortstop has seen Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz in a limited fashion, but he’s been successful. He has two hits in three at-bats with a home run.
- Baz is prone to getting hit hard. His 1.44 HR/9 is the fourth-highest among qualified pitchers.
Henderson has a .351 average over the past 10 games. He hasn’t been hitting for power, but has a good shot to flip the script on Wednesday.
MLB home run picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.