The Boston Red Sox can earn a big series win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is in desperate need of a victory, only sitting one game clear of the New York Yankees in the AL East. The Jays will look for a big performance behind Max Scherzer, who counters Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 24 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop predictions involving Crochet and Jarren Duran.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-104)
There’s been some serious concern lately with Scherzer on the mound.
He’s been shelled constantly, allowing 21 earned runs over his last five starts.
- That was over 20.0 innings, and his last start was disastrous (seven ER, 0.2 IP).
- Four of those five games went over this total with an average of 12.6 runs scored.
Even if the Jays’ offensive slump continues, I don’t trust Scherzer or the bullpen to keep this game within control.
Corchet also isn’t pitching his best right now. Over his last four starts, he holds a 4.68 ERA (4.99 FIP).
There’s potential for an unexpectedly high-scoring game here, so I’ll buy in on the low total.
Key stat: Seven of Crochet’s last nine starts have gone over 7.5 runs.
Jays prop predictions
Duran over 1.5 total bases (+104): With Scherzer on the mound, I want to take advantage of a hitter on the Red Sox side, and Duran caught my eye.
At plus-money, he provides value in this matchup.
- He’s just 1-for-3 off Scherzer, but the one hit was a home run.
- Duran went hitless on Tuesday but had at least a knock in eight of the nine games before.
I believe he has one of the highest offensive floors on the Red Sox on any night, thanks to his raw power and elite speed.
And this is a strong spot for production with Scherzer starting. Duran is hitting leadoff for Boston and should be in line for five or more at-bats.
Crochet under 6.5 Ks (-137): Even if Crochet has a strong outing, this is a tough number to get past against the Jays.
- Toronto strikes out the second-fewest times per game (6.75).
- Crochet has finished under this total in both his starts against the Blue Jays this season.
That’s in 12.2 innings pitched over two very solid performances.
This isn’t a fade on Crochet by any means and is solely to do with the matchup at hand.
Toronto has held 19 straight starting pitchers under this number.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.