I’m targeting a pair of southpaws as part of Sunday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Ranger Suarez’s strikeouts prop is set at 4.5, which seems modest relative to his output this season. Suarez should fare well against the Arizona Diamondbacks, while I expect Reds lefty Andrew Abbott to give his team some length vs. the Chicago Cubs.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 21, featuring a prediction on Brandon Nimmo.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Abbott over 15.5 outs (-125)
Abbott’s promising career has gotten better with each passing season, and I’m hoping he can put a bow on an impressive Year 3.
The 26-year-old has a sub-3.00 ERA through 27 starts, which includes three solid-or-better outings against the Cubs (today’s opponent):
- May 24: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K
- May 30: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K
- Aug. 6: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K
Abbott is 3-0 vs. this prop bet when facing the Cubs in 2025, averaging 19.3 outs in those starts.
He isn’t always called upon to work deep, but it’s not like the Reds are treating him with kid gloves. He has thrown 95+ pitches in 16 of his 27 starts.
I was initially looking at Abbott’s strikeout prop, which sits at even money to the over on 4.5 Ks. He has cashed that bet in seven consecutive starts but is just 1-2 on that line vs. Chicago.
The Cubs are a low-strikeout team, with the sixth-lowest K rate in MLB. Their ability to put the ball in play could help Abbott keep his pitch count in check.
Cincinnati still has plenty to play for, too, which I think works in Abbott’s favour.
The Reds are one game out of a wild-card spot. If Abbott is rolling, I wouldn’t expect him to get a quick hook — especially since the team’s setup man and closer both pitched in the first two games of this series.
Key stat: Abbott has held the Cubs’ active lineup to a .209 batting average and a sub-.400 SLG in 91 at-bats.
Best MLB picks
Nimmo over 0.5 RBI (+120): Nimmo is a cleanup man hitting in front of three scorching hitters.
Over the past week, the trio of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso all have an OPS of .993 or above and a wRC+ of 163 or above.
If those guys can continue to find ways on base, I like Nimmo’s opportunity to bring someone home.
- Nimmo is 7-for-20 (.350) with a pair of home runs vs. Nationals starter Jake Irvin.
- Irvin has been getting shelled recently, coughing up 44 runs over 42.0 innings in his past nine starts.
- In three starts vs. the Mets this year, Irvin has allowed 25 baserunners and 11 runs in 18.1 IP.
Nimmo is 3-0 vs. this prop in Irvin’s three starts against the Mets. He’s also 5-4 vs. this prop in his past nine games overall.
Suarez over 4.5 Ks (-120): Suarez was chased early in his lone start against the Diamondbacks, but he still managed to strike out six batters over 3.2 innings.
Ideally, he can stick around for longer in today’s outing, and if so, I really like his chances to cash this bet.
- He’s averaging 6.0 Ks per start this year (145 strikeouts in 24 starts).
- Suarez has 5+ Ks in 18 of 24 outings.
- In three starts vs. the Diamondbacks since 2023, Suarez is 3-0 vs. this prop.
Suarez has collected 10+ Ks in three of his past six starts, so his ceiling as a strikeout generator is quite high. This really isn’t a significant total for him to clear.
MLB prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 09/21/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.