Two sluggers and one starting pitcher contribute to Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Bryce Harper is my main target at plus-money because of his matchup. Elsewhere, Taylor Ward has a good shot at mashing for the Los Angeles Angels at Coors Field.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 20, featuring predictions on Harper, Ward and Framber Valdez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Harper over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Harper may not be playing at an MVP level this season, but his stats are still top-tier.
- He has an 85th-percentile xBA (.282) and 91st-percentile xSLG (.522), per Baseball Savant.
- Plus, he’s raking over his last 10 games with a .324 batting average and 1.136 OPS.
That all goes before mentioning his stats against Arizona Diamondbacks’ starter Zac Gallen.
Harper is 10-for-20 off Gallen with two home runs in his career.
The righty is having a down year with a 4.73 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and I expect the all-star slugger to do damage.
Key stat: Harper is 7-3 against this line in his past 10 games.
Best MLB picks
Valdez over 17.5 outs (-108): In terms of stats, Valdez has been struggling over recent starts.
His last 10 games have not been pretty, but it hasn’t hindered his ability to work deep into ball games.
- Valdez is 2-8 over those starts with a 5.31 ERA.
- Despite that, he’s 6-4 against this line.
The bright side is that his FIP of 3.79 during that time is much lower than his actual ERA. That stat measures a pitcher’s effectiveness at limiting base runners and getting Ks, independent of field conditions.
Valdez has thrown 85 or more pitches in 27 of his 29 starts this season.
Ward over 1.5 total bases (-130): Ward is an all-or-nothing hitter, but that’s something to take advantage of at Coors Field.
- He pairs his high strikeout rate with an 84th-percentile barrel rate.
- His .462 SLG is well above the MLB average. He also leads the Angels with 261 total bases this year.
Ward certainly has pop, and he can take advantage of the Rockies’ starting German Marquez.
Marquez has the third-worst ERA in the majors among pitchers with over 100 innings pitched (6.73).
He gives up 1.49 HR/9 and continuously gets rocked when playing on the road or in Colorado.
But his .937 OPS allowed at Coors Field is definitely something I want to take advantage of.
MLB prop picks made at 11:17 a.m. ET on 09/20/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.